Scenario: Emergence of India

This article was a sub-article of Superpower in Wikipedia. It has been shifted here as a sub-article of Geopolitical future scenarios, under New Emerging Powers, where it better fits. There are two sister articles on China & EU.

The Republic of India could be considered as one of the emerging future superpowers [1] [2] [3] [4]. Facing many problems, it has a long way to go to realise its potential.

Geographic factors

• Location - India, the 7th largest nation by area, lies at the north of the Indian Ocean. The Thar Desert in the north-west and the Himalayas in the north and north-east protect it from bitter continental cold and also save the monsoons from escaping. The subcontinent contains necessary water resources and flat arable land to sustain its massive population. Many Eurasian sea trade routes pass through or close to Indian territorial waters. [5]

• Possible future advantages of India's location -

Energy - Far into the future - as technology develops cheaper means to harness clean/renewable sources of energy - the world will leave the "fossil-fuel age" (Figure-7 of [6] ) and (possibly in an even longer run) the "nuclear-fission age" to enter the "renewable-energy age" or the "fusion age" (if/whenever they become economically sustainable/viable [7] [8] [9] ). If the world enters a "solar age" [10], then being an economy in the sunny tropical belt, South Asia will enjoy having both high solar insolation [11] and a big consumer base density [12] at the same place. Also considering the energy consumption for temperature control, requirements of cooling from excessive solar heat will be more economical than heating for the lack of it. [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20]

Demographic factors

• Big - India has the world's second largest population and by 2050 will have the largest. [21][22]

• Youthful - Due to its high birth rate India has a young population compared to most aging nation powers. In the coming decades, while some major powers witness a decrease in workforce, India will have an increase [23]. For example while Europe is well past its demographic window, U.S. entered its in 1970 (lasting until 2015), China entered its in 1990 (will last until 2025), India won't enter its window until 2010 (lasting until 2050). Source: Table 16 & 19 in Proceedings of the UN Expert Meeting on World Population to 2300.

• Global Diaspora - More than 20 million Indians live across the globe [24]. Under fair opportunities, they have become socioeconomically successful [25].

• English - The importance of English in 21st century is being debated [26] [27] [28] [29], but the growing non-native English speakers makes it the best contender as a "Global language" [30] [31] [32] [33] [34]. Incidently, India has the world's largest English speaking/understanding population [35] [36]. It claims one of the largest workforce of engineers, doctors and other key professionals, all comfortable with English [37]. It has the 2nd largest population of "Fluent English" speakers, second only to the U.S., with estimates ranging from 150 to 250 million, and is expected to become the world's largest within a decade [38].

Political factors

• Democracy - India is the world's largest democracy, more than three times bigger than the the next largest ( U.S.). It has yet been successful, atleast politically, especially considering its functionality in difficult ethnic composition.[39][40]

• Candidate for Security Council - India's bid for a position in the Security Council (as part of the G4 nations g4) has received backing from the UK [41], France [42], Russia [43] and China [44]. The U.S. did not support India's bid but there has been indications that it is waiting for a more suitable time to allow new members to UNSC [45] [46].

• Foreign relations - India has developed relationships with the world powers like the EU [47], the U.S. [48], Russia, Japan and also with the African Union, the Arab World, Southeast Asia and Israel. In order to make the environment propitious for economic growth India is improving its relations with China [49] and Pakistan [50].

• Role in international politics - Although India was one of the founding members of Non-Aligned Movement, it was also a key backer and ally of the former Soviet Union during the Cold War. It has played regional roles in South Asian affairs [51] [52]. It took a leading initiative to improve relations between African and Asian countries. India is an active member of The Commonwealth and the WTO. Currently, India's political moves are increasingly being influenced by economic imperatives. It is slowly assuming a role as one of the two Asian powers [53], the other being China. The evolving economic integration politics in the West and in Asia is influencing the Indian political mood to slowly swing in favour of integration with global economy [54]. It has also confessed its own visions, over the long run, of a South Asian version of free trade zone and even a Union, inviting its neighbours to relinquish past animosities and move to make India's economic growth a pan South Asian phenomenon [55] [56] [57] [58] [59] [60][61].

• Multipolarity - A school of international strategists propose that the current world powers should support and help India's emergence. One of the debatable reasons given is that, as an economically strong democratic citizen of the world, it could help to balance the powerful but non-democratic forces, and thus insure a more stable world [62]. On the other hand if India fails to exist or prosper then the "Theory of Democracy" will face the biggest setback.

• Economic Growth - India's current fast economic growth (as the world's second-fastest growing major economy) has improved its standing on the world's political stage, even though the country remains one of the poorest in the world. Many nations are moving to forge better relationship with India. [63] [64]

==Economic factors== [65]

• Blooming Economy - The economy of India is currently the world's fourth largest in terms of real GDP (PPP) after the USA, China and Japan, and the second fastest growing major economy in the world, averaging at an annual growth rate of 7.1% [66]. Its record growth was in the third quarter of 2003, when it grew higher than any other emerging economy at 10.4% [67]. India's economy is estimated to surpass Japan as the third largest economy [68] by the end of 2006 based on its current growth rates.

Primary Sector - India manages to grow enough food to feed its populace.

Secondary Sector - India is still relatively a small player in manufacturing when compared to many world leaders. Some new trends suggest a better future. [69] [70][71] [72] [73] [74]

Tertiary and Quaternary Sector - India currently has an expanding IT industry. [75] [76] [77]

• Science/Tech - India is trying to develop more high skilled, English speaking people to fit in the future knowledge economy [78] [79]. India is becoming one of the world's leading producers of computer software and with mushrooming R&D centres, it is experiencing a slow but steady revolution in science and technology [80] [81][82]. A typical example of India's rising scientific endeavours - It was the 3rd nation to found a National Space Agency called ISRO, after the USSR and the U.S.. It was first Asian nation to send satellites into space, starting with Aryabhata in 1975 [83] [84]. By 2008 it plans to send an unmanned mission to the Moon [85] [86] [87]. India is among the world leaders in remote sensing [88], a technology coming to great use, among others, to Indian fishermen & farmers [89]. India is also trying to join international R&D projects - e.g. it has recently joined the European Galileo GPS Project [90] and the ITER for fusion energy club [91]. Some Indian educational and research institutions like IIT [92], IIM, IISc and AIIMS are among the world's best.

• Tourism - India's tourism infrastructure is yet poor when compared to the 'best of the world' standards, yet its diverse and fascinating history has led to the creation of a booming tourism industry. Foreign visitors presently spend more than US $15.4 billion annually in India [93] [94][95]. Many travellers find it an eye-opening experience (and for some, even enlightening), even when the hassles of life in developing India like inefficiency, pollution, overcrowding, etc somewhat lessen the pleasure aspect [96] [97]. Monuments like the Taj Mahal is just tip of the ice-berg that this land has to offer. As its tourism infrastructure develops it may emerge as one of the big tourist attractions. The is just starting to re-discover India. [98][99]

• Energy - To reduce the energy crisis, India is presently constructing ~ 9 civilian nuclear power reactors and several hydro-power stations [100] [101]. Recently it also made a civilian nuclear energy deal with the US [102] and EU [103]. In recent years, India joined China to launch a vigorous campaign to acquire oil fields around the world and now has stake in several oil fields (in the Middle East and Russia) [104] [105] [106] [107].

Military factors

• Total Strength - India maintains the Indian Armed Forces (3rd largest no. of active troops) and the Indian Paramilitary Forces (over a million strong, forming the world's largest paramilitary force). Combined, the total armed forces of India are 2,414,700 strong, the world's 2nd largest, after China.

Army - The Army of India, as the Indian army was called before 1947 under British dominion, played a crucial role in checking the advance of Imperial Japan into South Asia during World War-2. Today the Indian army is the 3rd largest land force after Chinese and U.S. forces.

Air Force - The wikipedia:Indian Air Force is the 4th largest air force in the world. India recently flew its first indigenously manufactured combat aircraft. It is presently developing a 5th generation aircraft known as Sukhoi Su-47 with Russia.

Navy - The wikipedia:Indian Navy is the world's 5th largest navy. It operates one of the only two Asian aircraft carriers. It also plans to induct two other aircraft carriers by 2008.

• Nuclear Weapons - India possesses them and the means to deliver these over long distances. India is not a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty on Nuclear Weapons (arguing on security concerns; also complains NPT to be discriminatory).

• Arms Import - India is currently one of the world's largest arms importer, spending an estimated US $16.97 billion in 2004. India has made military technology deals with the Russian Federation, U.S., Israel and the EU.[108]

• Current major roles - The Indian Armed Forces plays a crucial role in anti-terrorist activities and maintaining law and order in the disputed Kashmir region. It has also participated in several United Nations peace-keeping missions, currently being the 2nd largest contributor to the UN peace keeping force [109].

Cultural factors

• History - India has a long history of cultural intercourse with many regions of the world. Its cultural influence has spread through the philosophy of religions like Jainism, Sikhism, Hinduism and Buddhism (particularly in East and SE Asia). Many foreign religions - Christianity, Islam, Judaism, Zoroastrianism, Bahá'í Faith - have found followers in India. India has no history of imperialism. Indian culture has always spread naturally or through widespread emigration to foreign lands.

• Bollywood - India's film industry, often known as "Bollywood", produces more feature films than any other (though not all of great quality) [110]. In a year, it sold 3.6 billion tickets, more than any other film industry in the world (In comparison, Hollywood sold 2.6 billion tickets in a year) [111].

• Democracy - [112] [113]

• Unity in Diversity of world view - The scale of multi-ethnic, multi-lingual, multi-religious people trying to cohabitate here is unparalleled in the world. The subcontinent's long and diverse history has given it a unique eclectic culture, claimed to be one of its great intangible assets. It is also often associated with spirituality. India's diversity forces it to either evolve strong foundations of tolerance and survive, or face break-up. The Indian public is now also accepting western influences in their society & media - and what is emerging is a confluence of its past local culture with the new western culture ("Social Glocalisation"). For some futuristic social thinkers, the miscegenation of diverse ancient culture with modernity, spirituality with science/technology, eastern with western world-view is potentially making India a social laboratory for the evolution of futuristic global-unity consciousness [114] [115][116]. If, and only if, everything evolves right, then South Asia could emerge as a soft super-power, by being the biggest melting pot of human ethnicities, languages, cultures, religions, ideologies & world view.

Points against the rise of an Indian superpower

• Resources - India is quickly overpopulating with growth outstripping China's [117]. The big question is whether the land can sustain such huge pressure. For example in spite of being gifted with abundant water, huge population is making per-capita clean water scarcer [118][119].

• Poverty - India is home to the largest number of people living under two dollars a day (approx 25% living under the poverty line) [120][121] [122] [123]. No one knows if India's economy will be strong enough to rescue such a huge mass of poor people. Poverty also begets child labour [124]. Recently, to tackle this problem, the Indian Government has started a mass employment program to help employ civilians living in rural areas[125] [126], though some note that this will be a "spoonful of reform for a sea of misery" [127].

• Infrastructure - India desperately needs to improve its social infrastructure [128] such as roads, rail, power grid, water, communications infrastructure, housing and most importantly education [129] to further its economic growth. In this regard India is decades behind in development when compared to U.S., China, etc [130].

• Bad Government - India's continual economic prosperity is also hindered by bad government and ubiquitous red tape [131] (‘Bureaucratic Raj' [132]). Retrogressive government regulations affect many areas. For example, in some states, black outs and power rationing are common due to underinvestment, differing state and local regulations, etc. This even affects the economic expansion of Bangalore (India's Silicon Valley) [133].

• Health - India's health scenario is dismal [134] [135]. Diseases and malnutrition is widespread amongst the poorest quarter of the populace [136]. Mortality is still relatively high and now the bane of AIDS is spreading fast[137] [138] . To improve the situation, a number of projects such as the building of some hospital chains (like the Apollo Hospitals, amongst others) has laid the foundation for a health system that can one day match global standards. However, India desperately needs more cheap and better health care system for its sub-middle class masses.

• Social Issues - India's complex social past has left some unwanted traces in its present. wikipedia:Casteism:Casteism [139] [140] (though rapidly declining [141]), discrimination against girl child and occasional sparking of religious intolerance/violence in certain parts of the nation are some dirty stains yet to be totally cleansed from the fabric of Indian society. A huge number of Indian women are yet subjugated and are unable to participate in the economy with their full potential.

• Cost of Democracy - Democracy has its value [142], more so in a multi-ethnic country like India [143]. However, the applicability of the "theoretical" virtues of democracy on a country like India is sometimes questioned [144] [145] [146] [147]. Some thinkers consider India's diverse and messy democracy [148] to levy a huge tax [149] on its economy. The Indian government has to consider many interest groups before decision making. It is not uncommon to see in India how a few small vested interests can stall the development for many.

• Disputes - India's growth is impeded by disputes with its neighbouring nuclear power China and Pakistan (over some historical border issues and ideological issues) and disputes with Bangladesh (over water availability and the Farakka Dam). Because of the disputes, India's neighbours such as China and Pakistan remain distrustful towards India. It is also occasionally burdened with instability issues within some localised regions/smaller states of the subcontinent. In an effort to reduce political tension and increase economic cooperation, in recent years, India has improved its relations with its neighbouring countries [150].

• Energy Dependence & Costs - India heavily depends on foreign oil for its growth - a phenomenon likely to continue until non-fossil/renewable energy technology becomes economically viable for masses [151]. To avert an energy crisis [152][153] India is desperately seeking every kind of energy - gas, oil, nuclear, etc. India can sustain its growth to higer growth trajectories only if nations in Middle East, Pakistan, US, China, Europe, Japan, etc. co-operate to help and share in India's growth. As for now, India is energetically expensive since India has to import over 70% [154] of its energy and the extremely hot temperature makes even air conditioning cost extremely high.

• Climate or Environment Problems - South Asia like many other regions has to manage various kinds of disasters, but some might become very serious issues in the future. For example today scientists are busy trying to predict possible repercussions that global warming [155] may have on world climate. Though humans are no where near in predicting what exactly will happen, but one of the possible effects may turn out to be a change in monsoons (weakening, aperiodicity or anything) [156]. South Asia heavily depends on periodic monsoon. Also the Gangotri glacier, among others, is receding [157] [158]. If it vanishes Ganga, amongst others, will become a seasonal river. 400-500 million people survive around the gangetic plains. Clean drinking and irrigation water is already a precious resource in South Asia. Some doomsayers are already predicting that, in the future, water scarcity may even incite a war in the sub-continent. Will South Asians join hands and invest in technology development for the long run (e.g. Solar Desalination etc.) to insure their safe future [159]? Urban air quality in India ranks among the world's worst. Of the 3 million premature deaths in the world that occur each year due to outdoor and indoor air pollution, the highest number are assessed to occur in India [160].

• Religious Intolerance - India has a diverse mix of various religions and races. The majority are Hindus by religion, followed by Muslims, Sikhs, Christians, Jains, Buddhists, Bahaii and the list goes on. Though most religions in India have been practising religious tolerance in their histories but the partition and subsequent terrorism had created some degree of uneasiness among some. The uneducated masses of these various groups sometimes get at odds with one another [161] [162] [163]. However in recent years, relations between the different religious groups have considerably changed for better. For instance, a real chunk, if not the majority, of India's celebrities - sporting legends, film stars, industrialists, artists, politicians, scientists, head-of-state, etc - have come from various non-majority roots, representing the emerging face of new diverse India [164].

• Low Literacy - The national literacy is yet just 65.2 per cent as per the Census in 2001[165], even though the literacy rate in some select states like Kerala, Punjab and Goa is above 85% [166]. Literacy drive is spreading slowly to other states[167], and it is hoped that the literacy rate will eventually rise above 70%. At current rates India will take no less than 20 years for a literacy of 95% [168].

• Non-Classical Economic Growth - Usually, in classical sense, the economic development of a nation follows the sequence of Agricultural age, Industrial & Manufacturing age and finally comes the Services. Some observers see India to be a "odd nation out" as it seems to have tried to jump to a service dependent economy without adequate industrial base. It is argued that while services does create great islands of prosperity but for general employment & prosperity of the masses a nation does need an adequate manufacturing base [169]. The warning goes that unless India develops mass employment for its masses (possible via manufacturing), it will not be able to generate a broad consumer base to compete with nations who are following the classical growth trajectory and are likely to soon develop their own highly competent service sector. In case India does decide to develop more manufacturing sector, it will have to reckon with nations who have already developed a core competence in this field. There are also counter arguements to this point [170].

• Technology - Although an important service provider and having some developed technology skills, India is still far behind powers such as the U.S., Japan or the EU in many fields.

• Lack of international representation - India is not a member of the UNSC council, although currently it is one of the four-nations group actively seeking a permanent seat on the council. Thus India lacks the ability to extend its influence or ideas on international events in the way few chosen nations do, the possession of VETO power would really improve India's power projection.[171]

External links

• The New India, and the Old One
• India has skilled workforce crisis.
• China, India Superpower - Not so fast.
• India's Economic Contrasts
• Why India lags China
• Does demography advantage India?
• India: Towards the Millennium Development Goals, UN
• The Changing Geopolitical Landscape by National Intelligence Council
• A New World Economy by Businessweek
• China and India by Businessweek
• India: the Next Economic Giant, 2004, By Lowy Institute, Australia.
• Prospects for China and India in the 21st Century, Marvin Cetron, World future Society Conference,2004.
• India: The next knowledge superpower
• Newsweek Coverpage on India
• Businessweek on India's attractiveness
• Socioeconomic statistics and demographics of Asians in America
• New World-Order Paradigm: The Best of the West Agrees It’s Moving East
• Relocating to India
• India, China, and the United States: A Delicate Balance
• China and India Hold World in Balance
• India and the World: Balancing Agenda
• Indian economy on take-off stage with demographic bonus
• Indian Economy Overview
• Made for India
• China and India - The Future of Investors
• A Race to the Future
• Indians on India Vision

Books

• The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-First Century Thomas L.Friedman
• Three Billion New Capitalists by Clyde Prestowitz
• India Unbound
• India: An Investor’s Guide to the Next Economic Superpower
• Social Problems in India/B.K. Prasad
• Energy Crisis in India

Media

• World is Flat, T. Friedman, Colloquim Recording at Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
• One Land, two planets (listen)