2028 United States Presidential Election (first female President)

2028 United States presidential election
November 7, 2028
Turnout		68.3% 1.7pp
Nominee		Gretchen Whitmer	J. D. Vance
Party		Democratic	Republican
Home state		Michigan	Ohio
Running mate		Raphael Warnock	Mike Lee
Electoral vote		319	219
States carried		26 + DC + NE-02	24 + ME-02
President before election Donald Trump Republican Elected President Gretchen Whitmer Democratic

The 2028 United States presidential election was the 61st quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. The Democratic ticket of former Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer defeated the Republican ticket of incumbent Vice President J. D. Vance. Whitmer became the first woman to be elected to the presidency. The election saw the highest voter turnout by percentage since 1952, exceeding the record turnout marked by the 2020 election. Whitmer received more than 83 million votes, the most votes ever cast for a candidate in a U.S. presidential election.

Whitmer ultimately received the majority in the Electoral College and also won the popular vote. She won blue wall states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin) and picked up the additional electoral votes of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina. Whitmer' victory in North Carolina was the first for a Democrat since 2008. Despite losing in the popular vote by the largest margin, JD Vance still won two states previously carried by Trump in 2024: Florida and Texas.

Background

Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as president, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, be at least 35 years old, and have been a United States resident for at least 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the various political parties in the United States. Each party develops a method (such as a primary election) to choose the candidate the party deems best suited to run for the position. Primary elections are usually indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The presidential nominee typically chooses a vice presidential running mate to form that party's ticket, which is then ratified by the delegates at the party's convention (except for the Libertarian Party, which nominates its vice-presidential candidate by delegate vote regardless of the presidential nominee's preference). The general election in November is also an indirect election, in which voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the president and vice president. If no candidate receives the minimum 270 electoral votes needed to win the election, the United States House of Representatives will select the president from among the three candidates who received the most electoral votes, and the United States Senate will select the vice president from among the candidates who received the two highest totals.

General Election

Statistics

Close states

States where the margin of victory was under 1% (11 electoral votes; all won by Whitmer):

1. , Arizona 0.7% - 11 electoral votes

States where the margin of victory was between 1% and 5% (122 electoral votes; 82 won by Whitmer, 40 by Vance):

1. Georgia, 1.2% – 16 electoral votes
2. Wisconsin, 1.7% – 10 electoral votes
3. Texas, 1.8% - 40 electoral votes
4. North Carolina 2.3% – 16 electoral votes (tipping-point state)
5. Nevada, 2.6% – 6 electoral votes
6. Pennsylvania, 2.9% – 19 electoral votes
7. Michigan, 4.1% - 15 electoral votes

States/districts where the margin of victory was between 5% and 10% (72 electoral votes; 15 won by Whitmer, 57 by Vance):

1. Maine's 2nd Congressional District, 5.4% - 1 electoral vote
2. Ohio, 8.1% – 17 electoral votes
3. Iowa, 8.2% – 6 electoral votes
4. Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, 7.2% – 1 electoral vote
5. Minnesota, 8.2% – 10 electoral votes
6. New Hampshire, 8.6% – 4 electoral votes
7. Florida, 9.7% – 30 electoral votes
8. Alaska, 9.8% – 3 electoral votes

Blue denotes states or congressional districts won by Democrat Gretchen Whitmer; red denotes those won by Republican J. D. Vance.

Whitmer' Path to Victory

In the 2024 election, six states were decided by a margin of less than 5% of the votes cast. All of them were carried by Trump: Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Georgia.

No state (except Arizona) previously won by Trump with a margin of more than 5% in 2024 was in play during the 2028 election. Of the states Trump won by close margins in 2024, Whitmer won all of them by over 1% of the vote. Whitmer's strength among suburban voters in metro areas such as Philadelphia, Detroit, Milwaukee, Atlanta, Phoenix, and Reno contributed to her larger margins of victory, as well as renewed strength with women and minority voters.

Among the states won by Trump by more than 5% in 2024, Whitmer was able to carry Arizona by a narrow margin of 0.7%.

Voter Demographics

Exit polls that interviewed voters after the polls showed a very different breakdown of American voters as in the 2024 election, with distinct changes in demographic groups.

In regard to race, Whitmer improved upon Harris' 2024 margins among all groups. She made significant gains with women. In regard to age,Her margins increased when compared to Kamala Harris' in 2024 and made gains with voters under 40.

Demographic subgroup	Whitmer (D)	Vance (R)	% of total vote
Total vote	51	45	96
Ideology
Liberals	89	8	25
Moderates	64	28	38
Conservatives	14	83	37
Party
Democrats	95	5	37
Republicans	6	94	36
Independents	58	32	26
Gender
Men	45	51	47
Women	59	38	53
Marital status
Married	45	51	55
Unmarried	59	37	45
Gender by marital status
Married men	43	53	29
Married women	48	48	27
Unmarried men	52	43	19
Unmarried women	65	31	25
Race/ethnicity
White	38	57	65
Black	92	6	13
Latino	69	28	15
Asian	63	34	4
Other	55	42	4
Gender by race/ethnicity
White men	35	62	34
White women	44	54	31
Black men	83	14	4
Black women	94	4	8
Latino men	60	34	6
Latino women	73	24	9
Other	59	37	8
Religion
Protestant/Other Christian	38	58	42
Catholic	52	45	25
Jewish	76	22	2
Other religion	68	27	8
None	66	28	23
White evangelical or born-again Christian
Yes	23	75	28
No	63	34	72
Age
18–24 years old	66	28	10
25–29 years old	54	41	8
30–39 years old	52	45	17
40–49 years old	55	43	15
50–64 years old	48	51	29
65 and older	48	51	21
Sexual orientation
LGBT	68	29	8
Non-LGBT	50	46	92
First time voter
Yes	65	29	14
No	50	48	86
Education
High school or less	45	53	19
Some college education	52	45	23
Associate degree	46	48	16
Bachelor's degree	53	45	27
Postgraduate degree	65	36	15
Income
Under $30,000	54	43	15
$30,000–49,999	56	42	20
$50,000–99,999	56	41	39
$100,000–199,999	41	55	20
Over $200,000	48	47	7
Union households
Yes	56	40	20
No	50	47	80
Military service
Veterans	45	53	15
Non-veterans	53	43	85
Issue regarded as most important
Threats to democracy	93	6	11
Crime¹	59	36	23
Immigration	24	72	10
Economy	15	80	29
Abortion	76	22	27
Region
East	59	37	20
Midwest	47	49	22
South	46	51	35
West	57	39	23
Area type
Urban	60	37	29
Suburban	51	45	51
Rural	41	55	19
Do you agree or disagree with the guilty verdicts in Donald Trump's criminal trials?
Agree strongly/mostly	91	6	53
Disagree strongly/mostly	4	94	42
Not sure	32	51	5
Abortion should be
Legal in all/most cases	72	24	59
Illegal in all/most cases	22	75	41
Climate change is a serious problem
Yes	66	20	72
No	14	83	27

_{¹The issue of "crime" included public safety and gun safety.}

Aftermath

Election Night

On election night, Whitmer over-performed many of the swing state polls, especially in Pennsylvania, Nevada, Wisconsin, Georgia, and North Carolina. By 10:30 PM, the Associated Press had called Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire for Whitmer. Just after 11 PM EST, when the polls closed on the West Coast, the Associated Press called the states of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin for Whitmer, putting her over 270 votes before midnight.

According to members of Gretchen Whitmer' campaign, it became obvious to them that she was going to win the election by around 10 PM.

The Whitmer campaign allowed for two hours to pass as the major networks continued to project more victories for Whitmer in various states, solidifying her win, and stamping out any conversation that calls could be reversed. By 2 AM EST, Whitmer had been projected to have won every swing states that Harris had previously lost in 2024.

Just after 2 AM, nearly 3 hours after being projected the winner, Whitmer gave her victory speech to a crowd of supporters.

Analysis

With many congressional races having closely mirrored presidential elections in recent elections, Whitmer's win helped Democrats retake control of the House of Representatives, and helped vulnerable Senate Democrats retain their seats, and therefore, the Democrats' control of the Senate.

Electoral College votes

The presidential electors met in the state capitol of each state and in the District of Columbia on December 20, 2028, and formalized Whitmer' victory.

In a speech following the Electoral College vote, Whitmer praised the resiliency of U.S. democratic institutions and the high election turnout (calling it "one of the most amazing demonstrations of civic duty we've ever seen in our country") and called for national unity.