The 2026 United States Senate elections were very pivotal in many ways. To start, there were 7 retirements from incumbents, including Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, which was a number much higher than average. Turnout for this midterm was extremely high. After the 2024 Presidential election where President Joe Biden redefeated Donald Trump in a huge landslide, the 2026 midterm elections were actually considered to be favorable for Democrats.
Things went wrong for Republican from the start. In many states, a large crowd of squabbling moderates allowed for rightwing extremists to shore up their support and win the nomination. This was the case in Georgia, a state that was considered to be in play for Republicans until fascist Marjorie Taylor Greene got the nomination, after which incumbent Senator Jon Ossoff pulled away in the polls and there was no longer any doubt he would be reelected. The same happened in New Mexico and Colorado, 2 states where early on it was believed that Republicans may have had chances but squandered those opportunities when Lauren Boebert won the Republican primary in Colorado and Claire Chase did so in neighboring New Mexico.
However, the worst case of this was in Illinois, where another crowded primary allowed Nazi supporter Art Jones to win the nomination. Many prominent Republicans refused to condemn Jones- in fact, many chose to endorse him, basically saying "While Mr. Jones's beliefs are wrong, I have no choice but to support him because America cannot become a socialist country". This is largely what caused the downfall of Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina, with Cheri Beasley surging past him in the polls after Tillis made an equivalent statement to the one above. Democrats pulled off an even more impressive defeat in South Carolina, where Senator Lindsey Graham's endorsement of Jones was only the tip of the iceberg; Graham also was embroiled in a major corruption scandal involving Russian money and he also voted against many popular pieces of legislation signed into law by President Biden. Ultimately, all this cost him his seat.
Nonetheless, Republicans were able to run some strong candidates. In Texas, for example, Congressman Tony Gonzales narrowly edged out former HUD Secretary Julian Castro, as Gonzales was able to appeal to enough moderate voters in the suburbs. In Michigan, incumbent Senator Gary Peters was in hot water over several campaign finance violations, and the very moderate Peter Meijer was able to defeat the weakened Senator Peters. This was the only seat flipped for Republicans. In addition, despite Democrat success in formerly red states, veteran moderate Republican Senator Susan Collins was able to narrowly win reelection in Maine. Collins' success largely was because she had broken with her party on many issues.
The biggest upset of the night occurred in Iowa when J.D. Scholten ousted incumbent Senator Joni Ernst, who was widely expected to win reelection. Scholten relied on massive in-person campaigning in every single county in the state. In addition, Democrats started a youth movement in the state which targeted millennial voters and urged them to break with their conservative parents and vote Democratic. Ernst, meanwhile, didn't hold any campaign events and spent much of the campaign season on Fox News where she repeatedly called her opponent a "socialist." The resulting Democratic victory enabled Democrats to gain 4 seats in the Senate.
| State | Prediction | Democrat | Total | Republican | Total | Result | Summary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | Safe Republican | Terri Sewell | 33.07% | Tommy Tuberville (i) | 65.73% | Incumbent reelected, Republican hold | Incumbent Tommy Tuberville easily won reelection in deep-red Alabama. |
| Alaska | Likely Republican | Forrest Dunbar | 44.9% | Dan Sullivan (i) | 50.97% | Incumbent reelected, Republican hold | Democrats considered this to be a competitive race and invested quite a bit of money here, but incumbent Dan Sullivan was able to win reelection by 6 points. |
| Arkansas | Safe Republican | Joyce Elliott | 8.42% | Tom Cotton (i) | 90.28% | Incumbent reelected, Republican hold. | Winning over 95% of white voters, Tom Cotton's lopsided 82 point margin of victory was the largest victory for any Republican running against any Democrat for the Senate in American history. |
| Colorado | Safe Democrat | John Hickenlooper (i) | 71.89% | Lauren Boebert | 24.19% | Incumbent reelected, Democratic hold | In what was already considered to be an uncompetitive race in solidly blue Colorado, the Colorado GOP essentially committed suicide by nominating fascist extremist Lauren Boebert who had narrowly won reelection to her House seat in 2022 in what was considered to be suspicious circumstances. By running for Senate, all of her crimes regarding campaign finance violations in addition to crimes relating to her failing restaurant were brought to light. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy eventually had to fold to public pressure and demanded that she resign. Her refusal to do so caused her to sink even lower in the polls. In the end, incumbent Senator John Hickenlooper defeated her by nearly 50 points and won nearly every county in the state. |
| Delaware | Safe Democrat | Chris Coons (i) | 61.44% | Lauren Witzke | 35.28% | Incumbent reelected, Democratic hold | Fascist, racist, drug addict, and flat-Earther Lauren Witzke tried her luck for a second time against Senator Chris Coons. This time, she fared even worse than she did in 2020. Senator Coons won all 3 of Delaware's counties; Witzke had managed to win Sussex County in 2020. |
| Georgia | Safe Democrat | Jon Ossoff (i) | 55.18% | Marjorie Taylor Greene | 41.39% | Incumbent reelected, Democratic hold | This was considered to be a very close race early on and a potential flip for Republicans. However, when fascist Marjorie Taylor Greene beat out a crowded field of squabbling moderate Republicans in the primary, Senator Jon Ossoff took a double digit lead in the polls. He ended up winning by close to 15 points. |
| Idaho (open) | Safe Republican | James Vandermaas | 36.01% | Russ Fulcher | 62.28% | Incumbent retired, Republican hold | Republican Congressman Russ Fulcher easily held the open seat that was vacated by the retiring Senator Jim Risch. |
| Illinois (open) | Safe Democrat | Lauren Underwood | 75.33% | Art Jones | 23.19% | Incumbent retired, Democratic hold | Longtime Senator Dick Durbin announced his retirement in 2025. Congresswoman Lauren Underwood easily received the Democratic nomination. As was the case in Colorado, a crowded field of moderate Republicans allowed the pro-Trump Nazi Art Jones to get the Republican nomination. Illinoisans were outraged and many demanded a redo of the primaries; even a handful of high-profile Republicans supported this. However, no such redo could be done, and most people then came to realize that there was zero chance Jones could win in what was already a deep blue state. Underwood won by nearly 50 points and won all but 2 of Illinois' counties. |
| Iowa | Lean Republican | J.D. Scholten | 50.42% | Joni Ernst (i) | 48.87% | Incumbent defeated, Democratic gain | Despite a large fundraising advantage and a modest lead in the polls for Senator Joni Ernst, J.D. Scholten managed to defeat her in a large upset. Analysts attributed this to Scholten's 99 county campaign and many youth voters breaking with their conservative families and voting for him. |
| Kansas | Likely Republican | Sharice Davids | 45.27% | Roger Marshall (i) | 53.94% | Incumbent reelected, Republican hold | Democrats had high hopes about this race, as Congresswoman Sharice Davids had a large fundraising advantage and had visited almost every part of the state. At the end, incumbent Senator Roger Marshall won reelection, but only by single digits. |
| Kentucky (open) | Safe Republican | Charles Booker | 42.82% | Daniel Cameron | 55.17% | Incumbent retired, Republican hold | After losing to Senator Rand Paul in 2022, Charles Booker decided to try his luck again, running for the open seat vacated by the retiring Mitch McConnell. Although he ran a spirited campaign and visited every county in the state, he still lost to Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron. Cameron thus became the first African American to ever be elected to the Senate in Kentucky. |
| Louisiana | Safe Republican | Troy Carter, Cedric Richmond | 26.35%, 11.87% | Bill Cassidy (i) | 59.96% | Incumbent reelected, Republican hold | Knowing that there was no chance to beat incumbent Senator Bill Cassidy, Congressmen Troy Carter and Cedric Richmond ran campaigns to "raise awareness." |
| Maine | Tilt Republican | Zak Ringelstein | 43.61% | Susan Collins (i) | 44.26% | Incumbent reelected, Republican hold | Longtime moderate stalwart Susan Collins was very narrowly reelected in what ended up being the most expensive race in the country. She defeated progressive Democrat Zak Ringelstein, who had previously lost to Senator Angus King back in 2018. |
| Massachusetts (open) | Safe Democrat | Ayanna Pressley | 68.21% | Rayla Campbell | 30.77% | Incumbent retired, Democratic hold | Progressive Democrat Ayanna Pressley easily absorbed the open seat left by the retiring Ed Markey. |
| Michigan | Lean Republican (flip) | Gary Peters (i) | 45.92 | Peter Meijer | 50.82% | Incumbent defeated, Republican gain | Incumbent Democrat Gary Peters was embroiled in a campaign finance scandal, which enabled the very moderate Peter Meijer to defeat him in this closely watched race. |
| Minnesota | Safe Democrat | Tina Smith (i) | 55.6% | Jim Hagedorn | 41.49% | Incumbent reelected, Democratic hold | Republicans viewed this race as a potential pickup opportunity, but Jim Hagedorn turned out to be a very poor candidate. The majority of Minnesotans thought that he was too conservative and out-of-step with the state. Senator Tina Smith won reelection by close to 15 points. |
| Mississippi | Likely Republican | Lataisha Jackson | 44.23% | Cindy Hyde-Smith (i) | 53.66% | Incumbent reelected, Republican hold | Although turnout from African Americans was historically high because of Democratic candidate Lataisha Jackson, incumbent Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith won reelection by close to 10 points. |
| Montana | Likely Republican | Kathleen Williams | 45.17% | Steve Daines (i) | 52.89% | Incumbent reelected, Republican hold | Although Kathleen Williams put up a very hard fight, incumbent Senator Steve Daines won reelection by close to 8 points, a margin slightly lower than his 10 point victory in 2020. |
| New Hampshire (open) | Likely Democrat | Chris Pappas | 53.54% | Don Bolduc | 45.08% | Incumbent retired, Democratic hold | After planning on running for reelection, Senator Jeanne Shaheen decided to retire due to health concerns. This was viewed as a huge opportunity for Republicans to flip a seat, but the Democratic candidate, Congressman Chris Pappas, took a large lead in the polls when pro-Trump Don Bolduc got the nomination. Pappas won by 8 points, a very sizable margin considering this was an open seat in a purple state. |
| New Jersey | Safe Democrat | Cory Booker (i) | 62.75% | Thomas Kean Jr. | 36.49% | Incumbent reelected, Democratic hold | Although his father was once a popular governor in New Jersey, Thomas Kean Jr was no match for the polarization in the solidly blue state. Senator Cory Booker won reelection by close to 30 points. |
| New Mexico | Safe Democrat | Ben Ray Lujan (i) | 59.61% | Claire Chase | 35.97% | Incumbent reelected, Democratic hold | Republicans initially had high hopes about this race, as they fielded several formidable candidates. However, fascist Claire Chase won the primary in a major upset, after which the race was considered to be safe for Senator Ben Ray Lujan. |
| North Carolina | Likely Democrat (flip) | Cheri Beasley | 53.74% | Thom Tillis (i) | 44.19% | Incumbent defeated, Democratic gain | Senator Thom Tillis's refusal to denounce Art Jones endorse Lauren Underwood in the Illinois Senate race ended up costing him most of his support from independent voters. Cheri Beasley defeated him by nearly 10 points; her victory also was attributed to her success at turning out African Americans. |
| Oklahoma (open) | Safe Republican | Mary Brannon | 32.62% | Stephanie Bice | 65.8% | Incumbent retired, Republican hold | Stephanie Bice became the first woman ever to be elected Senator in Oklahoma, succeeding the retiring Jim Inhofe. |
| Oregon | Safe Democrat | Jeff Merkley (i) | 61.27% | Mike Nearman | 35.01% | Incumbent reelected, Democratic hold | Fascist Mike Nearman lost by 26 points to Senator Jeff Merkley. |
| Rhode Island | Safe Democratic | Jack Reed | 70.33% | Allan Fung | 27.89% | Incumbent reelected, Democratic hold | Allan Fung tried his political luck for a third time after twice running for governor and losing in the state. However, he was no match for Senator Jack Reed. who won by over 40 points. |
| South Carolina | Tilt Democrat (flip) | Seth Rose | 51.39% | Lindsay Graham (i) | 47.62% | Incumbent defeated, Democratic gain | Senator Lindsay Graham was under multiple federal investigations for money-laundering, bribery, and other charges. This made him extremely unpopular in his state but the race was still considered to be competitive because South Carolina's partisan leanings. In the end, Graham lost reelection by close to 4 points. |
| South Dakota | Safe Republican | Troy Heinert | 33.82% | Mike Rounds (i) | 64.23% | Incumbent reelected, Republican hold | Senator Mike Rounds won reelection by over 30 points in this uneventful race. |
| Tennessee | Safe Republican | Christopher Hale | 34.14% | Bill Hagerty (i) | 65.03% | Incumbent reelected, Republican hold | Senator Bill Hagerty was reelected to a second term by over 30 points. Support for Hagerty exceeded 90% in nearly 20 Tennessee counties. |
| Texas (open) | Tossup | Julian Castro | 48.69% | Tony Gonzales | 50.25% | Incumbent retired, Republican hold | Senator John Cornyn's retirement gave Democrats a potentially huge pickup opportunity. Former HUD Secretary Julian Castro took an early lead in the polls, but Congressman Tony Gonzales later caught up and the race was considered to be a pure tossup. In the end, Gonzales won by about 1.5 points. His victory was attributed to campaigning as a centrist Republican, which helped him in suburban areas. |
| Virginia | Safe Democrat | Mark Warner (i) | 58.46% | Morgan Griffith | 39.87% | Incumbent reelected, Democratic hold | A purple state no longer, Senator Mark Warner won reelection by nearly 20 points in Virginia. |
| West Virginia | Safe Republican | Paula Jean Swearingen | 30.99% | Shelley Moore Capito (i) | 67.76% | Incumbent reelected, Republican hold | Senator Shelley Moore Capito won reelection in a landslide, although she narrowly lost 2 counties in the state. |
| Wyoming | Safe Republican | Lynette Grey Bull | 29.04% | Cynthia Lummis (i) | 68.53% | Incumbent reelected, Republican hold | Senator Cynthia Lummis won a second term by close to 40 points, typical of Wyoming. |