2024 United States Presidential Election (Harris, Trump)

	‹ 2020 2028 ›
United States presidential election, 2024
November 5, 2024
Turnout	146,659,421
	Presidential election results map. Red denotes states won by Trump/Vance, while Blue denotes states won by Harris/Walz. Numbers indicate electoral votes allotted to the winner of each state.
	President before election; Joe Biden; Democratic Elected President; Kamala Harris; Democratic

The 2024 United States presidential election took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024. It was the 60th quadrennial presidential election. Voters selected presidential electors who voted on December 14, 2024,^[2] to select a new president and vice president. The election occured simultaneously alongside elections for the House of Representatives, Senate, and various state and local-level elections.

This election was effectively a rematch of the 2020 election. The Democratic ticket of incumbent incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz defeated the Republican ticket of former President Donald Trump and United States Senator from Ohio J. D. Vance. Harris received 293 electoral votes and 50.2% of the popular vote, while Trump received 245 electoral votes and 47.1% of the popular vote.

Background[]

Despite numerous attempts by incumbent President Donald Trump and other Republicans to subvert the election results in 2020, Joe Biden was sworn into office on January 20th, 2021. Within the first 100 days of his administration, over 100 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine were distributed. By August 2021, Covid-19 infections had significantly dropped, and the pandemic was coming to an end. Biden’s first term had also seen high levels of economic growth with unemployment figures dropping from 6.7% to 4.3% by the summer of 2024. However, due to the House of Representatives becoming Republican in the 2022 Congressional Elections, the Biden administration was unable to pass serious reform that was urged by the Progressive Wing of the Democratic Party.

Democratic Nomination[]

Despite rumors that the 82-year-old incumbent president would not seek re-election, Joe Biden remained in good health throughout his first term and announced his intention to run for a second term in April 2023. Very popular among democratic voters and seen as the unifying link between the moderate and progressive wings of the party, Joe Biden was easily renominated by the Democratic Party on the first ballot, along with incumbent vice president Kamala Harris.

Republican Nomination[]

Many candidates urged for the Republican nomination including former Governor of New Jersey Chris Christie, former Governor of Maryland Larry Hogan, U.S Representative from Florida Matt Gaetz, Talk Show Host Sean Hannity, and Activist Candace Owens. However, the leading front-runner was 78-year-old former President Donald Trump from Florida. Despite rumors of Trump running on a third-party ticket, Trump announced his intention to run for the Republican nomination on August 22nd, 2023.

Despite being unpopular with the general American public, Trump remained popular with his base. Trump finished first in the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary followed by Maryland Governor Larry Hogan. While Hogan beat Trump in the South Carolina primary, Trump picked up a wide majority of the delegates at Super Tuesday and was declared as the presumed Republican Nominee in late March.

Trump became the first person to be renominated three times for the presidency by a major political party since Richard Nixon in 1960, 1968, and 1972. In mid-July 2023, he declared Ohio Senator J. D. Vance as his running mate, making him the first Millennial to be present on a Republican Presidential ticket.

Campaign[]

Biden trailed in the opinion polls over Trump for the majority of the campaign, ranging from 2% to 8%. Biden campaigned on his dealing with the coronavirus pandemic, the fast-growing economy, on Trump’s personal flaws, and on the “misery and chaos” during Trump’s presidency. Trump campaigned on inflation and on the failed withdrawal from Afghanistan. Trump criticized the US-China Trade Deal of 2022, the Iran Nuclear Deal of 2023, and the United States rejoining the Paris Climate Accord. Trump also spread false and unsubstantiated rumors of election fraud in 2020, and claimed that he “should be president right now.”

13 Keys To The White House[]

The 13 Keys to the White House is a prediction system for determining the outcome of presidential elections in the United States. It was developed by American historian Allan Lichtman and Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981, adapting prediction methods that Keilis-Borok designed for earthquake prediction.

The system is a thirteen-point checklist that assesses the situation of the country and political system ahead of a presidential election: when five or fewer items on the checklist are false, the incumbent party nominee is predicted to win the election, but when six or more items on the checklist are false, the challenging party nominee is predicted to defeat the incumbent party nominee in the election.

Some of the items on the checklist involve qualitative judgment, and therefore the reliability of this system relies heavily on the knowledge and analytical skill of whoever attempts to apply it. Using the system, Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcomes of every presidential election since 1984. Here is the result of the 13 Keys in 2024, in which Lichtman correctly predicted that President Biden would defeat Donald Trump.

#	Key	True/False
1	Midterm gains: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.	False
2	No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination (nominee gets 2/3rds of delegates on 1st ballot).	True
3	Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.	False
4	No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.	True
5	Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.	True
6	Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.	True
7	Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.	True
8	No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.	True
9	No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.	True
10	No foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.	False
11	Major foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.	False
12	Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.	False
13	Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.	True
KAMALA HARRIS PREDICTED TO WIN		5 FALSE

Results[]

Kamala Harris won the election with 293 electoral votes and 50.2% of the popular vote. Trump came in second place with 245 electoral votes and 47.1% of the popular vote.

During this election, Donald picked up the state of Wisconsin which had voted for Biden in 2020. Donald Trump became the first former president to lose a re-election bid for a second term twice.

Similarly to 2020, following the election, Trump’s team and other Republicans spread numerous fake rumors of election fraud and election rigging, threatening not to confirm the Electoral College vote.