Timeline of the future in forecasts

This timeline of the future in forecasts is a timeline of credible forecasts of near-future events and developments in all areas of science, technology, society and the environment.

Forecasting informs the planning and policy making processes within all governments and commercial organisations. Forecasts may be either qualitative extrapolations from a current state or quantitative output from models or simulations based on historical data and trends.

Forecasts are published by:


 * research and statistics departments within governments and leading commercial companies in a given field.
 * NGOs, think tanks and international organisations.
 * professional organisations and their associations and governing bodies.
 * academic bodies.

In addition, leading experts in a particular field develop and publish their own individual forecasts, and notable thinkers called futurists formulate independent visions of the future.

Forecasting is obviously not an exact science, and different experts may legitimately forecast different dates for the same event, because they use different models or assumptions. This timeline is organised by topic, allowing different forecasts of the same event to be compared side by side. Although the forecasts in this timeline are produced by professionals, no judgment is made as to their accuracy.

History
As far back as the nineteenth century, scholars and scientists made predictions about the future. Lord Kelvin, "One Heck of a Prognosticator, president of the Royal Society in the 1890s, and disbeliever in virtually every scientific discovery," claimed that “Radio has no future,” “I have not the smallest molecule of faith in aerial navigation other than ballooning,” and “X-rays will prove to be a hoax;” Orville Wright, in 1908 claimed that “No flying machine will ever fly from New York to Paris;” and Irving Thalberg, MGM movie producer, asserted in 1927 that “Novelty is always welcome, but talking pictures are just a fad.” Thus, making forecasts of the future's timeline has a historic basis in which many of the predictions by even experts have proven inaccurate.

Artificial intelligence and robotics

 * Robots capable of manual labor tasks--
 * 2007 - a cooking robot in some restaurants (2018 in private homes), Pansum, developers of AIC, 2006
 * 2009 - robots that perform searching and fetching tasks in unmodified library environment, Professor Angel del Pobil (University Jaume I, Spain), 2004
 * 2011 - sex robots that have sex with people, Henrik Christensen, chairman of EURON, the European Robotics Research Network (“People will be having sex with robots within five years.”, “Trust Me I’m A Robot.” The Economist, June 8th 2006).
 * 2015-2020 - every South Korean household will have a robot and many European, The Ministry of Information and Communication (South Korea), 2007
 * 2018 - robots will routinely carry out surgery, South Korea government 2007
 * 2022 - intelligent robots that sense their environment, make decisions, and learn are used in 30% of households and organizations - TechCast
 * 2030 - robots capable of performing at human level at most manual jobs Marshall Brain
 * 2034 - robots (home automation systems) performing most household tasks, Helen Greiner, Chairman of iRobot
 * Military robots
 * 2015 - one third of US fighting strength will be composed of robots - US Department of Defense, 2006
 * 2035 - first completely autonomous robot soldiers in operation - US Department of Defense, 2006
 * 2038 - first completely autonomous robot flying car in operation - US Department of Technology, 2007
 * Artificial intelligence
 * 2019 - $1,000 computer will match the processing power of the human brain - Ray Kurzweil
 * 2020 - Artificial Intelligence reaches human levels - Arthur C. Clarke
 * 2045 - The Singularity (creation of the first ultraintelligent machine) occurs - Ray Kurzweil
 * 2050 - computer costing a few hundred pounds will have the capacity of the human mind - Hans Moravec
 * 2055 - $1,000 computer will match the processing power of all human brains on Earth - Ray Kurzweil

Biology and medicine

 * Visual prosthetics
 * 2007 - a 1Kpixel artificial retina with 1000 electrodes (Department of Energy, 2004)
 * 2009 - 60 pixel artificial retina available for $30,000 - Professor Mark Humayun, University of Southern California
 * Implantable gadgets
 * 2011 - digital devices with implantable parts (Joseph Reger, Fujitsu-Siemens Technology Director, 2007, )
 * Use of animal organs for transplantation
 * 2007 - first genetically modified pig with organs that are not rejected by humans (South Korea's Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, 2004)
 * 2010 - practical use of such animal donors in surgery (same source)
 * Regenerative medicine
 * Widespread use for most tissues and organs - 2020 (Federal Initiative for Regenerative Medicine)
 * 2014-2024 - (International Association of Biomedical Gerontology, 2004) - comprehensive functional rejuvenation of middle-aged mice
 * Cloning of dinosaurs
 * 2023 - Arthur C. Clarke
 * Reverse engineering of human brain
 * 2008 - accurate simulation of the cortical column (Blue Brain Project, 2005 )
 * 2025 - Ray Kurzweil, 2005

Communications

 * All communications are IP-based
 * 2014 - Paul Mockapetris, inventor of the DNS system, 2004

Computing

 * 1 petaFLOPS supercomputer
 * 2008 - Cray current project (2006)
 * 2006 - Riken Japan (July 2006) (NEC MDGrape-3)
 * 10 petaFLOPS supercomputer (the amount required to simulate the human brain according to Kurzweil)
 * 2010 - NEC, Tokyo Institute of Technology
 * 2012 - Riken
 * 1 zettaFLOPS supercomputer
 * 2020 - University of Notre Dame
 * User interface
 * 2013 - voice control replace keyboard/mouse interface for 30% of routine tasks - TechCast

Culture and leisure

 * Entertainment channels
 * 2010 - 30% by value of U.S. music, movies, games, and other entertainment is sold online - TechCast
 * Virtual reality
 * 2025 - full immersion virtual reality using direct input to the brain becomes available - Arthur C. Clarke
 * 2030 - virtual reality allows any type of interaction with anyone, regardless of physical proximity - Ray Kurzweil
 * Sport
 * 2050 - a team of fully autonomous humanoid robots can win against the human world soccer champion team - RoboCup, 1997

Demographics

 * World population exceeds 7 billion
 * 2013 - U.S. Census Bureau
 * 2013 - United Nations
 * World population exceeds 8 billion
 * 2026 - U.S. Census Bureau
 * 2028 - United Nations
 * World population exceeds 9 billion
 * 2043 - U.S. Census Bureau
 * 2054 - United Nations
 * World population exceeds 10 billion
 * 2183 - United Nations
 * Other demographic milestones
 * 2020 - world average life expectancy of new-born child exceeds 70 years - World Resources Institute
 * 2030 - number of people aged 65 or older exceeds 1 billion - Ray Hammond
 * 2030 - new-born child in developed country has life expectancy of 130 years - Ray Hammond
 * 2045 - world average life expectancy of new-born child exceeds 75 years - World Resources Institute

Energy

 * Peak oil - global oil production peaks
 * 2010 - Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas
 * 2011 - Colin Campbell, Oil Depletion Analysis Centre
 * 2013 - French government report
 * Other energy milestones
 * 2020 - U.S. carbon emission market exceeds $1 trillion - New Carbon Finance
 * 2023 - alternatives to carbon-based fuels provide 30% of all energy used worldwide - TechCast

Environment

 * Arctic shrinkage - arctic ice-free in summer
 * 2013 - Professor Wieslaw Maslowski, U. S. Naval Postgraduate School
 * 2040 - National Center for Atmospheric Research
 * Arctic shrinkage - arctic ice-free all year
 * 2020 - Ted Scambos, National Snow and Ice Center
 * Other environmental milestones
 * 2098 - coral cover on Great Barrier Reef drops below 10% - Dr Eric Wolanski, James Cook University

Nanotechnology

 * Nanomachines in commercial use
 * 2019 - nanotechnology is used in 30% of commercial products - TechCast
 * 2020 - nanomachines in soldier armor controlled by on-board computer can change the properties of fabric from flexible to bullet-proof, treat wounds and filter out chemical and biological weapons, nanomuscle fibers can provide an exoskeleton. US Army, estimates from The Vision 2020 Future Warrior project, 2004
 * Universal replicator is developed
 * 2040 - Arthur C. Clarke

Politics and economics

 * World economic growth
 * 2016 - China's GDP exceeds that of Japan - National Intelligence Council
 * 2025 - one billion dollar-millionaires worldwide - James Canton, The Extreme Future
 * 2032 - India's GDP exceeds that of Japan - National Intelligence Council
 * 2041 - China's GDP exceeds that of US - National Intelligence Council
 * 2050 - China's GDP exceeds that of US - Goldman Sachs, Price Waterhouse Coopers

Transportation

 * Self-driving cars
 * 2008 - General Motors, 2005 - driving in heavy traffic at 100 kph
 * 2030 - all cars travelling on major roads under control of satellite and roadside control systems - Ray Hammond
 * Hybrid vehicles
 * 2013 - hybrid powered cars make up 30% of the new car market - TechCast

Space

 * Space tourism and private spaceflight
 * 2011 - space flights become available to the public - Arthur C. Clarke
 * 2006-2008 - space hotel under construction - plans of American motel tycoon Robert Bigelow, 2004
 * 2013 - "space cruiser” takes a group of tourists outside of the Earth’s atmosphere - TechCast
 * 2024 - "many thousands of people being able to afford" visiting orbital hotels, Burt Rutan, 2004
 * Space elevator
 * 2020 - Bradley C. Edwards (head of Institute for Scientific Research), 2004
 * Return to the Moon
 * 2015 - Russian plans - Energia Corporation (2006)
 * 2020 - NASA plans first return to the Moon and moon colony no later than 2020 (2006)
 * 2024 - Chinese plans (2006)
 * Unmanned mission returns samples from Mars
 * 2020 - NASA
 * Human landing on Mars
 * 2020 - MIT's Aeronautics and Astronautics department, 2005
 * 2021 - Arthur C. Clarke
 * 2025 - a permanent Mars colony, 4Frontiers, 2005
 * 2030 - TechCast
 * Asteroid mining
 * 2024 - Peter Diamandis, founder of Ansari X Prize, 2004
 * Near light speed travel
 * 2095 - Arthur C. Clarke