Dissolution of Russia

This section is about hypothetical dissolution of the Russian Federation. For the 1991 event, see Dissolution of the Soviet Union.

The possible dissolution of Russia is a hypothetical disintegration of the current state of the Russian Federation as a single state with a centralist government, as well as forecast, outlooks, opinions, analysis trajectories and implications of the subsequent consequences of this event.

The topic is the subject of hundreds of articles on the Internet.

The current Russian Federation as the primary remnant i.e. successor state of the Soviet Union after its collapse and dissolution has been experiencing disintegration processes of varying degrees threatening the collapse of the country. This topic was actively discussed by E. Kholmogorov, G. Kasparov, M. Leontiev, P. Svyatenkov, K. Remchukov, K. Rodionov, A. Eliseev, I. Prokopenko, G. Gref, M. Kalashnikov, M. Remizov, M. Delyagin, A. Fursov, G. Malinetsky, V. Solovey, S. Kurginyan, A. Prokhanov, N. Narochnitskaya, V. Averyanov, V. Tretyakov, I. Yakovenko, D. Medvedev.

Historical precedents
Throughout the long turbulent and troublesome history of Russia and its various iterations of states and governments ranging from its imperial days as an absolutistic monarchy over the era of being a communist social republic during the soviet era there were two major periods during which significant large territories fell away from its control. The first is the disintegration of the Russian Empire as a result of the February and October revolutions in 1917–1921. Active disintegration processes began in the economy, social structure, public and political spheres of the Russian Empire, which ultimately led to the end of the Tsarist regime and became parts of independent states as Poland, Finland and Romania. The second is the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1990–1991 which led to the independence of the 15 republics of the USSR (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Moldova, Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan).

Since 1990s after the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the subsequent formation of the Russian Federation as a multi-ethnic centralistically controlled federal state a number of regions have sought to secede. To varying degrees and through various means, movements and aspirations of independence from the centralist government in Moscow within the present state of Russia have occurred with the most prominently known having led to major armed military conflicts on the territory. The two Chechen Wars (with the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria), and the Republic of Tatarstan. These are among the more recent historic examples attributed to disintegration processes within Russia.

Possible causes of decay
Chief researcher, Institute of philosophy RAS V. Shevchenko when evaluating review articles O. Yu. Maslova "the Collapse of Russia in the early XXI century in the statements of contemporaries," notes that it contains a large collection of articles of authors on the theme of disintegration of Russia — from the diehard supporters of the idea that the collapse of Russia is almost inevitable and has already begun to supporters of the idea of artificial and deliberate attempts of the collapse of the country.

The main reason for the disintegration processes and the possible collapse of Russia according To V. Shevchenko's review work "the Future of Russia: Strategies for philosophical understanding" is the lack of a national idea or project (such as communism in the USSR) that would unite all the people of Russia. Russian statehood is in a transitional state, in which all processes have become more active: both integration and disintegration.

Accompanying reasons for the possible collapse of Russia in the work of V. Shevchenko are listed: xenophobic sentiments ("Russia for Russians"), the desire of the ethnic groups in Russia for separatism, the transformation of national republics into full-fledged States.

In a report to the Izborsky club, a group of analysts led by A. Kobyakov named the lines of division in modern Russian society that could potentially lead to the collapse of the state: socio-economic inequality, interethnic relations, alienation of elites from the people, and opposition of the "creative class" to the rest of society.

Culturologist I. Yakovenko believes that the main reason for the disintegration processes is the uneven process of market modernization in different regions of Russia, which increases the economic isolation of these regions from each other. Yakovenko identifies the following regions into which, in his opinion, the Russian Federation may break up: North and South of Russia, Siberia, the North Caucasus and the intercontinental border.

In V. Shevchenko's article, the opinion is given that the disintegration has actually already begun, and its signs are: legal extraterritoriality, displacement of persons of a non-titular nation in national republics from the state apparatus, and radicalization of Islam.

According to mathematician Georgiy Malinetsky, there are some possible reasons for the collapse of Russia:


 * the big difference between the income levels of different social strata;
 * strong economic gap between different regions of Russia;
 * the complexity of communications between different regions of the country, which are the result of infrastructure underdevelopment;
 * breakdown of generations;
 * strengthening of existing schisms in a religious, cultural and national context;
 * strengthening of the power of local regional leaders;

Opinions on the consequences
In an interview with the magazine Expert in April 2005, the head of the presidential administration, Dmitry Medvedev said:

In 2011, during a meeting of the government Commission for the development of the North Caucasian Federal District in Gudermes, Vladimir Putin said what would happen if the Caucasus suddenly left Russia:

Irredentism
There many ethnicities living in Russia related or identical to the titular ethnic groups of neighboring countries. In some regions of Russia and neighboring countries, Irredentism ideas are expressed about the reunification of divided peoples.

In Buryatia and two Buryat autonomous okrugs, ideas are being expressed of joining Mongolia as part of the idea of pan-Mongolism.

There are often demands in a nationalistic environment of Kazakhstan to return Orenburg the former capital of the Kazakh SSR in 1920 and the southern part of the Omsk region.

The idea of uniting Finland and Karelia is popular among part of the population in Finland and Karelia.