2024 Election (CH)

The 2024 United States presidential election took place on Tuesday, November 5th, 2024. Republican Tim Scott and his Vice President Pat Toomey defeated Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and her running mate Ed Markey. It was the narrowest election since 2000, with Kamala Harris winning the popular vote but losing the electoral college. It was the second time in three elections that the popular vote winner did not win the White House.

The major issues of the election were focused on gun control, healthcare, climate change, and the economy. Joe Biden was not a popular president, but not nearly as divisive as Donald Trump. Despite Trump being four years removed from the presidency, he was still a major topic of the election.

The election was the first time that two people of color ran against each other. The campaign was noted for being extremely cordial, a welcome change from the combative previous two elections. Tim Scott's public favorability rating was above 50%, the first presidential candidate to have a favorability rating above 50% since 2012.

Background
With the Democrats controlling the White House and both houses of Congress following the 2020 election, the Biden administration began to pass many Democratic laws, such as increased gun reform and expanding Obamacare. The Democrats would lose seats in both the House and Senate in the 2022 midterms, but would retain their majority.

The Biden administration was largely unpopular and Biden was viewed largely as a figurehead, especially as his public appearances decreased in the later half of his term. His approval numbers hovered around 40% throughout his entire term. The most notable action of the Biden administration was the confirmation of two Supreme Court judges, Michelle Alexander and Richard Franklin Boulware. Alexander was nominated following Ruth Bader Ginsberg's retirement in 2021 and Boulware following Stephen Breyer's death in 2022.

Republican Primary
In the immediate aftermath of the 2020 election, the Republican party was divided on whether the party needed to continue Donald Trump's legacy moving forward or distance themselves from Trump. In a poll taken in March 2021, 35% of Republicans said they would prefer to continue Trump's legacy going forward, while 27% preferred to distance themselves from Trump and 38% were unsure.

Throughout Biden's term, Trump was extremely critical of the president, constantly saying that he was destroying the country and that Republicans needed to take the country back in 2024. This led to much speculation about whether Trump himself would run in 2024, and Trump floated a potential run following the 2022 midterms in an interview with Sean Hannity on Fox News. Despite his polarizing view within the Republican party, he was the heavy frontrunner in the polls at the end of 2022. However, on January 7, 2023, Trump announced during an interview with Hannity that he would not run in 2024.

Following Trump's declination to run, the Republican primary field was wide open. Nikki Haley, a former South Carolina governor and long thought of as a future presidential candidate, also announced that she would not run in 2024. With Biden's low approval numbers, and an open field, many Republican leaders saw an opening to the presidency, which led to one of the largest Republican primary fields ever.

Republican Candidates

 * Tim Scott, South Carolina senator
 * Mike Pence, former Vice President from 2017-2021 (endorsed Scott)
 * Tom Cotton, Arkansas senator (endorsed Scott)
 * Pat Toomey, Pennsylvania senator (endorsed Scott)
 * Kim Reynolds, Iowa governor (endorsed Scott)
 * Rick Scott, Florida senator (endorsed Pence, then Scott)
 * Ron DeSantis, Florida governor (endorsed Cotton, then Scott)
 * Marco Rubio, Florida senator (endorsed Scott)
 * Ben Carson, former HUD secretary from 2017-2021 (endorsed Pence, then Scott)
 * John Kasich, former Ohio governor (endorsed Toomey, then Scott)
 * Rand Paul, Kentucky senator (endorsed Toomey, then Scott)
 * David Duke, Grand Wizard of the KKK (endorsed Cotton, then refused to endorse)
 * Joni Ernst, Iowa sentor (endorsed Reynolds, then Scott)

Early Months
With the party still divided over Trump and the future of the party, the race was split as the campaign got underway in 2023. The most ardent Trump supporters backed Mike Pence, Tom Cotton, and Ron DeSantis, while those who preferred to distance themselves from Trump flocked to Tim Scott, Marco Rubio, and Kim Reynolds. This led to no clear frontrunner for the majority of the early months, with Pence, Cotton, Rubio, and Reynolds all polling in the mid-teens.

The first Republican primary debate took place on June 28, at the Ronald Reagan Library in California. The topic of Trump was once again the most polarizing issue, with Trump candidates like Pence and DeSantis attacking others for trying to distance themselves from the former president. Tim Scott, a South Carolina senator, made a strong impression and appealed to both Trump voters and dissenters. His poll numbers rose in the weeks following the debate, and he moved into a tie with Pence at the head of the field by the end of the summer. Joni Ernst, an Iowa senator who was polling below 2%, was the first candidate to drop out of the race in early August. David Duke, the controversial KKK leader who was denied entry into the debates, shortly followed.

As the calendar turned to fall, the leading candidates started to emerge. Pence, Cotton and Scott emerged as the frontrunners, while Rick Scott and a surprise candidate, Pat Toomey, were close behind. Marco Rubio and Ron DeSantis, once thought of as frontrunners, began to dwindle in the polls, dipping into the single digits. On Thanksgiving, Pence led the field at 27%, with Tim Scott right behind at 25%, and Cotton at 22%.

At the December debates, Tim Scott once again stood out, appealing to both ends of the party. With Pence and Cotton splitting the vote among Trump's base, Scott became the first candidate to eclipse the 30% mark in the polls. Pat Toomey appealed to the moderate vote, and found himself right beside Cotton and Pence in the polls.

The first major endorsement came in December when John Kasich and Rand Paul each dropped out of the race and endorsed Toomey. Toomey's poll numbers were rising and he briefly drew even with Scott in the polls. Ben Carson, with dwindling poll numbers, dropped out and endorsed Pence.

Early Primaries
Entering the Iowa caucus, Tim Scott was the frontrunner in the polls, with Cotton and Pence close behind. However, Kim Reynolds, the Iowa governor, surprisingly won the Iowa caucus, with Scott and Pence close behind. Despite her victory, Reynolds was not thought of as a serious contender to win the nomination, as Iowa was her home state. Following Iowa, Marco Rubio dropped out of the race after getting just 3% of the vote and endorsed Scott. Ron DeSantis, who had run a disappointing campaign, received just 6% of the vote and suspended his campaign to endorse Cotton, worried that the Trump vote was being split.

The next three primaries would be won by three different candidates: Pence would win New Hampshire, Cotton would win Nevada, and Scott would win South Carolina. Despite losing the first three primaries, Scott would enter Super Tuesday with the delegate lead following a massive victory in his home state. To add onto his momentum, Kim Reynolds dropped out of the race following three disappointing finishes and endorsed him. Rick Scott would drop out of the race and endorse Pence.

Super Tuesday
With the Trump vote still split between Cotton and Pence, Tim Scott dominated Super Tuesday. He won Alabama, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia, white Cotton won his home state Arkansas and Oklahoma, and Pence won Texas and Tennessee. Scott left Super Tuesday with a commanding delegate lead, but Pence was still within striking distance. Cotton and Toomey would each drop out that night, with Cotton declining to endorse and Toomey endorsing Scott.

With Scott and Pence the only remaining candidates in the field, Pence began attacking Scott on his lack of loyalty to Trump, trying to energize Trump's base. However, the attacks were unsuccessful as Scott would win Michigan and Oregon the following week. Pence would win Ohio and Mississippi, but Scott had built an insurmountable delegate lead. Seeing the writing on the wall, and at the urging of Trump and other Republican leaders, Pence dropped out on March 22, leaving Scott as the presumptive nominee for president.

Former Republican Presidential Endorsements
Trump notably did not officially endorse a candidate, but praised Pence, Cotton, and Tim Scott throughout the campaign while targeting Toomey, Kasich, and Reynolds. Trump initially teased that he would endorse Pence following his campaign launch in March 2023, but then said he would let the primary play out on its own. George W. Bush, who declined to endorse Trump in 2016 and endorsed Biden in 2020, happily endorsed Scott, the first time he had endorsed the Republican nominee since 2012.
 * Donald Trump, 45th President from 2017-2021 (endorsed Scott)
 * George W. Bush, 43rd President from 2001-2009 (endorsed Scott)

Vice Presidential Choice
With Trump and his base already firmly in his corner, Scott and his campaign decided to target a more moderate VP with the hope of winning over disgruntled independents. On June 29, Politico released a report that Scott had narrowed his VP choices down to four: Pat Toomey, the Pennsylvania senator, Kim Reynolds, Iowa governor, John Kasich, former Ohio governor, and Scott Brown, former Massachusetts senator.

On July 18, days before the Republican Convention, Scott introduced Pat Toomey as his running mate during a rally in Philadelphia. Scott cited Toomey's strong moral values, impressive congressional record, and his popularity in Pennsylvania, a crucial swing state, as his reasons for choosing Toomey. The selection was widely praised, with over 75% of Republican voters satisfied with the choice.

Republican Convention
The Republican National Convention was held from July 22-25 at Little Caesars Palace in Detroit, Michigan. Notable speakers included Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Ben Carson, and former presidents George W. Bush and Donald Trump. The major emphasis of the convention was to restore America to greatness, and take back the country from disastorous Democratic leadership.

Democratic Primary
Joe Biden announced during the campaign that he would not run for reelection, and during the first year of his presidency he publicly stated that he expected his VP Kamala Harris to carry on his legacy in the 2024 election. Many top Democrats endorsed Harris for president years before 2024. The Democratic party publicly discouraged any primary, emphasizing that they needed to convey a united front. Progressives, wanting to push Harris further left and seeing her high disapproval numbers, pressured Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to run, but she declined. Elizabeth Warren also declined to challenge Harris. The only progressive to challenge Harris was Ed Markey, a former Massachussetts senator.

Democratic Candidates

 * Kamala Harris, Vice President from 2021-2025
 * Ed Markey, former Massachusetts senator (endorsed Harris)

Early Months
The Democratic Party declined to hold debates in the summer of 2023, despite Markey reaching the polling threshold to qualify. This alienated progressives, who already held Harris and the Biden administration in low regard. By Labor Day, Markey had eclipsed 20% in the polls. Despite not running a campaign to necessarily win, Markey was gaining momentum.

With Markey surging in the polls, the Democratic Party relented and held the first debate in Washington D.C. in October. Markey was widely thought to have outperformed Harris, and he moved within single digits of Harris in Iowa polling. However, he was still a significant underdog and was not considered a serious threat to Harris.

Primaries
Markey's momentum stalled as the primaries approached, in large part due to Bernie Sanders publicly declining to endorse Markey. While Sanders admitted that he preferred Markey as a candidate, he said that there was no realistic pathway to victory and that Harris would make a good president. In the first four primaries, Harris received over 70% of the vote in each state, including 87% in South Carolina. With the miniscule path to the nomination completely shut, Markey dropped out and endorsed Harris.

Vice Presidential Choice
With progressives even more distrustful of the Democratic party and moderates flocking to Scott, Democrats sensed the need to choose a progressive VP in order to satisfy the Bernie Sanders wing of the party. With the nomination locked up before March, Harris announced Markey as her running mate on March 17. It was a stunning turn of events, as Markey was thought to be ostracized by the party following his primary run. Progressives were satsified however, and 87% of Sanders-Markey voters said they would definitely vote for Harris.

Democratic Convention
The 2024 Democratic National Convention was held at American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas, from August 4-7. Notable speakers included Pete Buttigieg, Andrew Cuomo, Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, president Joe Biden and former president Barack Obama. The convention was largely geared to appeal to progressives, with Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez getting primetime speaking slots, and many other progressives speaking as well.

Former Democratic President Endorsements

 * Jimmy Carter, 39th President of the United States from 1977-1981 (endorsed Harris prior to his death in August of 2024)
 * Bill Clinton, 42nd President of the United States from 1993-2001 (endorsed Harris)
 * Barack Obama, 44th President of the United States from 2009-2017 (endorsed Harris)
 * Joe Biden, 46th President of the United States from 2021-2025 (endorsed Harris)

General Election
The campaign kicked off in April, with Scott holding a slight edge in the polls. In large part due to Pat Toomey's presence on the ticket, Scott held a large lead in Pennsylvania, a massive swing state. However, as the fall approached, Biden's approval rating reached as high as 48%, the highest of his term. Harris took a lead in the polls, in large part due to an energized progressive base due to the presence of Markey and Harris' promise to include many progessive voices in her administration.

The first presidential debate was held on September 23, at American University. Harris attacked Scott on wanting to return America to what it was under Trump, with divisive leadership and the global pandemic, riots, and economic downturn which marred the final year of the Trump presidency. Scott countered that the economy was stronger under Trump than it has been under Biden, which Harris refuted. Overall, both candidates were thought to have performed well, with the American public happy to see the two candidates cordial and respectful towards each other, a change from the previous two elections.

The second debate was held on October 2 at Hofstra University. Scott took the attack to Harris, grilling her on her shaky record as a prosecuter. Scott was thought to be the clear winner of the second debate, and he received a boost in the polls. The final debate was held on October 15, at Arizona State University. Harris was more prepared and largely played defense, defending her record and the Biden administration. Like the first debate, it was thought that both candidates performed reasonably well, with Harris having the slight edge.

Election Night
Heading into Election Night, the election was considered a true tossup. Swing states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, and Arizona showed an extremely tight race, with both candidates leading in different polls. President Biden's approval ratings continued to climb near 50%, and the Harris campaign was confident heading into Election Day. Polling showed a handful of worrisome trends for the Vice President however, as Scott led independent voters by 4 points, whereas Joe Biden had won independents by 18 points in 2020. Also, over 60% of the public said they held a favorable view of Tim Scott, while under 45% said the same of Kamala Harris. Early returns showed a razor thin lead for Harris in most swing states. However, as the night went on, Scott took a narrow lead in Pennsylvania and Michigan. Harris received good news however when Wisconsin and Minnesota, two massive swing states, were called for her. However, Scott would retake the southern states that they had lost in 2020, winning Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina. Harris would win Arizona, another massive swing state, and all eyes turned towards Michigan and Pennsylvania. Michigan was called for Scott at 1:59 AM EST, leaving Pennsylvania as the only state uncalled and the decider of the election. Finally, just after 3 AM EST, Pennsylvania was called for Scott, barely edging out Harris with 48.7% of the vote to 48.2%, giving Scott the presidency. It was the narrowest election victory since 2000.

Aftermath
On January 20, 2025, Tim Scott was sworn into office as the 47th President of the United States. He promised to unite the country after eight years of division, and to serve the American working class. He thanked Biden and Harris for their hospitality during the previous two months as he prepared to take office. Americans were relieved to see both parties being respectful to each other after eight years of division. Scott began his term with an approval rating above 75%.