Futurology: Technological Determinism

Technological determinism is the assumption that technological development is not random, but moves toward certain goals (attractors), even if it doesn't follow a predetermined path.

Assuming that, a good approximation of the future can be created based on what is possible according to the laws of nature (ultimate limits), rather than predicting future based on ephemeral things such as current short-term trends.

&quot;Ultimate limits&quot; for selected technology areas:
 * Nanotechnology &mdash; assemblers
 * Biotechnology&mdash; immortality
 * Space exploration &mdash; elevators, colonization of planets, space cities, star missions
 * Artificial intelligence &mdash; human level and beyond
 * Robotics &mdash; total automation
 * Virtual reality &mdash; total realism
 * Computing &mdash; much faster than human brain, simulation of everything, uploading
 * Communications &mdash; hyperbroadband on Earthand beyond

If something is really useful, it will be developed

Links

 * http://shepilo.ru/techno.htm (in Russian) (babelfish)
 * Wikinomics Elevator to Space Article