Talk:2020 U.S presidential election (Ultra's World)/@comment-24660155-20190701101204/@comment-28758801-20190701233525

@Aiothai

1. Stacey Abrams lost the Georgia gubernatorial election because her stance on guns. Georgia isn't a progressive state, is it more progressive than some of it's neighbors, yes, but it's going to Bernie in 2020, even if Abrams is on the ticket. The south is too conservative. As a southerner myself, very few people like Bernie Sanders and the Progressive movement in general, mainly because his plans would raise their taxes.

2. For the second time, I made Maine's 2nd Congressional District go to Trump because he overwhelmingly won it in 2016, plus Kamala has no appeal with that area because it is very rural and few minorities live there.

3. The Rust Belt could go back to the Democrats in 2020, if they run a candidate that can get the vote for a white working class voter in Michigan that lose their job due to outsourcing. Kamala isn't that candidate, she can drive African-Americans to vote, like Obama did. That is one of the reasons she wins Michigan in this scenario. In Wisconsin, not as many Black people live there, so Trump would probably carry it in a scenario where the economy is still doing decent by 2020.

4. Some economists  said a recession would happen in 2016, guess what. It didn't. I'm not saying a recession will not in 2020, maybe it will or maybe not.

I'm not making far fetched predictions here, I made Trump lose the popular vote and win by a very slim margin, 274-264. People across the political spectrum believe Trump will win in 2020. I agree with Beta that you are overestimating Democrats chances, I bet if you were a democratic strategist, you would say "run whoever they want, trump will lose anyway" and the Dems would run Hillary Clinton again and it would be a bigger victory for Trump than in 2016.