Talk:2020 United States Presidential Election (Trump, Biden)/@comment-32023146-20200723011905

Given the extremely close contest over the popular vote, I see this hypothetical result as extremely probable. COVID-19 is certainly going to be the biggest issue for Trump's support, but the ongoing BLM riots/protests are making many moderates move, at least temporarily, to the right, much like the Gaullist victory after the May 1968 riots in France. The average person supports the statement "black lives matter", but many moderates see the self-professed Marxist Black Lives Matter organisation as irredeemably radical. Talk of defunding the police won't win any support from moderates.