Talk:2020 United States Presidential Election (Trump, Biden)/@comment-27930283-20200705215209

You are not realistic. First of all, COVID cases will NOT start to decrease in the autumn. Health experts all concur that they will dramatically begin to INCREASE around that time, and that states who are not prepared will experience a new wave of cases even worse than the first, and that COVID will likely become endemic, or become a recurring bug like the seasonal flu.

And even if such a miracle WERE to occur, it wouldn't translate to a strong economic recovery. Most people will be very hesitant to go out for nonessential reasons, and unemployment as a result will still remain quite high. But let's say that somehow the economy begins to return to pre-COVID levels of growth, and unemployment begins shrinking dramatically. That still wouldn't erase the fact that close to a quarter of a million Americans will have died from the virus by that point- a death toll far greater than any other country. Almost everyone will have known someone who has died from COVID or whose life has been dramatically altered because someone close to them died form the virus. This will be especially true in states like Florida, Georgia, Arizona, California, and Texas- 5 heavily populated states that are all being ravaged by the virus as we speak. A president cannot win reelection campaigning on a strong economic recovery. They never have. Recessions almost always kill the reelection odds of a president, and Trump is not special just because his followers have a cult mentality.

That alone guarantees Joe Biden a substantial victory in the popular vote and likely the electoral vote as well. Florida in particular is now all but certain to vote for Joe Biden no matter what- even if the virus magically goes away and the economy recovers like you think it will, do you really think that will make all the senior citizens in Florida suddenly change their mind and vote for Trump? Especially considering that, even now, all the uninfected senior citizens know someone who the virus has infected and/or killed, or know someone who was close to someone killed by the virus. No economic recovery will erase that from their memories.

A similar situation applies to Arizona as well- the virus is exploding there and it seems that the ultra hot temperatures there have little to no effect on it (maybe this was a heat-resistant coronavirus designed in a lab, who knows?). Arizona also has a very strong Democratic candidate running for Senate against incumbent Martha McSally - Mark Kelly, the astronaut! Kelly will undoubtedly increase Democratic turnout and likely hand Biden a modest win there also. Arizonans are known to support independent "maverick" style candidates- John McCain and Barry Goldwater were two of the best examples. Senator McSally, meanwhile, was not even elected by Arizonans. She was rejected in the 2018 midterms; Kyrsten Sinema won the election, but then the governor appointed McSally to fill the vacancy left by the late John McCain. Most independents view her as being a caretaker rather than a leader at best, and entitled and snobbish at worst. Again, Biden is almost certain to win Arizona no matter what.

That alone would put Biden over the top if nothing else changes from 2016, but you actually think that Trump could win New Hampshire and Maine. NH would be a tossup if COVID never existed, and if George Floyd were still alive. The people there are conservative economically, but socially liberal. Even though Biden got smoked in the primaries there, he still stands very likely to win because New Hampshire rejects extreme Christian sharia-law fascism that the Republican party supports now. The last Republican NH voted for was Bush back in 2000, but remember that he supported "compassionate conservatism" and an opposition to nation-building, positions that would horrify the Republican party today.

Next, let's look at Maine, because you clearly have no clue how that state works or how they vote. Like Nebraska, the popular vote winner receives 2 electoral votes but the remaining electoral votes are awarded by district. First of all, given all that's going on now, there is no way Trump could win Maine's popular vote. Again, if things were still "normal", I would have given him maybe a 30-40% at winning Maine at large. But now it's down to zero. I will say that Trump is probably still likely to win Maine's 2nd congressional district that he won in 2016 as well, but how you could think he could win the first district can only be explained by you not studying the state. The first district encompasses Portland and Augusta and is solidly Democratic no matter what. Although Hillary Clinton did considerably worse than Obama in this district, she will won it with ease. Trump barely improved on Romney's margins in 2012. The only chance Trump could have of winning Maine is if there is some incredibly strong third party challenger similar to Ross Perot (who actually came in second in Maine back in 1992, ahead of Bush 41), but even then, it is a longshot.

Finally, you assume that Pennsylvania and Wisconsin will stay red. Even if the virus didn't throw America off its rocker, he would still have great difficulty carrying them. Now, he has almost no chance at all, even if things improve. Biden is undoubtedly going to run up huge margins in places like Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, Madison, and other urban areas of the states. Trump will not have the luxury of suppresed urban turnout like he did in 2016. That was a fluke that cannot be replicated with an agitated Democratic base rather than a complacent one. I will agree that Trump will still win Texas, Ohio and Iowa, and will PROBABLY win Georgia, although the Peach state looking more and more competitive at the moment. North Carolina could go either way and as of right now is the swingiest state of the election.