China's Doom and America's Rise

This is a letter from a 91-year-old in 2100, stating how China rose dramatically, peaked in 2050, and fell in 2100, while the US looked like declining in the first half of the century, but clearly rose in the second half.

Ok, whoever is reading is in the year 2021, or MMXXI. Very soon, in 2022, China's GDP is $18 trillion and US GDP is $22 trillion. China's population is 1.450 billion and the United States's population is 335 million. In 2023, China hit a GDP of $20 trillion. By 2030, China and the United States matched a GDP of $30 trillion. China hit 1.467 billion people (all of the growth is in the aging cohorts), and the US had a population of 353 million. In 2031, China overtook U.S. GDP. Xi Jinping, now 78, stated that anyone who challenges China has racist, xenophobic intentions, and China can do whatever it wants for the good of the world. In the same year, China's population peaked. In 2035, China was rapidly aging, and the fertility rate by then was 1.67, and the US, on the contrary, had a fertility rate of 1.82, which meant China would decline in population. The number of Chinese centenarians surpassed the number of American centenarians, since China's life expectancy was 81 years, just a year below the United States's 82 years. In 2040, China will go even farther, with a GDP of over $50 trillion, while the US GDP is at $40 trillion. Areas of China, such as western and central China, northeastern China, and some cities like Shenzhen (a very anti-American city), Nanjing, Suzhou, and Zhengzhou would continue growing, even when China overall was declining. The United States would have five megacities, and would especially grow in the Sun Belt and the western and southeastern areas, putting China at 1.450 billion and the US at 373 million. the government was trying to increase fertility and migration, while trying to decrease mortality, in order to keep the U.S. population growing. China boasted a GDP of $80 trillion, while the US came in at a remarkable $50 trillion in 2050. The US was approaching the 400m mark, had 1,250,000 migrants a year, had a life expectancy of 85 years, and a fertility rate of 1.90. China, meanwhile, saw its glory peak, with a population of 1.40 billion, -50,000 migrants a year, a life expectancy of 84 years, and a fertility rate of 1.60. In the coming years, China would decline its population rapidly, falling to 1.32 billion in 2060, while the US hit 420 million. In terms of GDP, China was at $120T, and the US was at $60T. From 2020 to 2050, China dramatically improved their GDP/capita, rising to $57,000, almost half of the US's $125,000. The problem was that China was greying, and their median age was 45 years, while the US's was 42 years. It is now 2070. China's population is 1.24 billion, and the US is at 440 million. China's GDP hit $160 trillion, while the US came in with $75 trillion. China sunk to a population of 1.16 billion in 2080, its GDP grew slower than ever by nearing $200T, while the US went to 460 million, and economically hit $90 trillion. China was very aged in 2090, had a record-low population of 1.08 billion; the US was aging slower, due to the rising fertility rate, which hit 1.98. The US maintained a very large population of 480 million. The end of the century came; in 2100, China's slowing GDP was $250T, while the US rose to $125T. China had a smaller population of 1.000 billion, but the U.S. climbed up to 500 million. The US's life expectancy of 93 years, and China's was at 91 years. The US's fertility rate was 2.00, but China's was at 1.50. The world, to be compared to, had a GDP of $1.333 quadrillion, a life expectancy of 83 years, and a fertility rate of 1.90. The world's population was 11 billion; China had only 8.9% of the world's population, while the US had 4.4% of it. Comparing to other major areas, India had 13.4% of the world's population, Nigeria had 7.1%, and Europe had 5.4%. I now expect the US to someday overtake China's population, and even challenge declining India and re-overtake slowing Nigeria, and help the once-topping Europe go up. Thankfully, the US's population is 500 million, while the aged China fell below 1.000 billion to 999 million, meaning the U.S. will consistently grow faster than China economically.