Talk:Scenario: Emergence of India 2

You were wise to cite so many negative aspects about India.

India is likely to rise to 1.85 billion people by 2089. At present, India does not have the resources or the hard currency to acquire such resources. It may not fare much better in the future on this critical point.

In any geopolitical equation, India must be thought of as a wild card. Will it continue doing business with countries on opposite sides, as it did in the Cold War, by being allies with Russia while trying to court western investment? Will it decide to stay within the western sphere in its embrace of English and western technology and "free thought", or will it drift toward Mandarin Chinese and eastern thinking? Will it face military conflict with its rivals like China and Pakistan?

Ex-patriate Indians are starting to form functioning majorities in several smaller countries around the world, and large minorities in other countries. This allows India to influence other nations.

Possibly India's worst issue is Islamofascism. Pakistanis have long supported radical Islamic causes, and their government is very tolerant toward Islamofascists in both Afghanistan and India. If the Taliban/Al Queda takes over Pakistan, it could decide that India is next. In addition, China and India fought a war against each other in 1962. China and Pakistan are allies. It is likely that any war that develops in Asia will pit China and Pakistan against India. While India would defeat Pakistan handily, it can only hope for a draw against India. However, by 2089, India's population might be large enough to allow it to emerge victorious in such a war.

India doesn't have much of a military tradition, but that may change.

It's hard to imagine a bright future with a country that has so many varied and competing interests, and so many potential enemies right on its doorstep. On the other hand, its hard not to be impressed with a country that forced the British to leave--even if the British were essentially left with no choice by then (1948).