Hypothetical elections: Bill Clinton vs George W. Bush (1996)

In this hypothetical scenario, we will look at what would have heppened if Republicans nominated George W. Bush in 1996, rather than Bob Dole.

The lead-up to the election
Almost everyone thought that President Clinton would be an easy shoo-in for reelection, as the economy was booming, the deficit was shrinking, foreign relations were strong, and there was a general sense of peace and prosperity. However, some people were more skeptical, as the Republicans made huge gains in the 1994 midterms and many southerners and northerners alike seemed be able to relate to George Bush much more than they could relate to his father 4 years earlier. In addition, fellow Texan Ross Perot announced that he would not seek a third party bid like he did in 1992.

On the campaign trail, Clinton emphasized the strong economy and the general sense of peace and tranquility across the country. He focused his campaign mostly in the upper midwest, as well in parts of the south. Bush, meanwhile, hugged the political center when it came to most issues. He criticized President Clinton for his failure to produce his promised healthcare reform, and campaigned on tax cuts and spending restraints, particularly when it came to the military. Bush also isolated himself from the many unpopular Republicans in Congress whom people elected, but no longer approved of, necessarily.

Still, heading into election day, Clinton enjoyed comfortable leads in most polls. George Bush prepared to concede defeat, but on Election day, something extraordinary happened.

Election night

Most people, even Republicans, thought that Clinton would win reelection very quickly. However, as the hours passed, that proved not to be the case. Although Clinton racked up wins in the industrial midwest with relative ease, Bush produced many surprises. The Texas Governor quickly won Kentucky and Tennessee, two states where Clinton was expected to win. Then, around midnight EST, Bush was declared to be the winner in Ohio, which was a major shock to the Clinton campaign and to almost every Democrat and Republican alike. Still, Clinton was feeling confident of victory until shortly after 2 A.M., when Bush carried the states of Louisiana and Missouri-  states that were supposed to be safely in the Clinton column. Suddenly, the results of the election hinged on the state of Florida, where both candidates exchanged the lead. Then, to everyone's shock, Bush was projected to carry Florida by a scant 20,000 votes at around 7 in the morning, and thus he won the election by only 1 electoral vote- 270 to 268.