Talk:US Senate Elections, 2016 (Joe's World)/@comment-25816873-20150210060016

This is way too optimistic for the Democrats. I expect McCain to retire but assuming Giffords will even run, much less win, is a stretch. Pryor will have a better chance than in 2014 with Hillary heading the ticket but he's far from a sure thing. If I were the Florida Democrats, I'd look elsewhere than Crist -- he's a bit shopworn by now. Grassley should win IF he runs (he into his 80s already). Louisiana and Missouri are far from sure things. And Portman is going to be hard to beat -- in Ohio, the Republicans have learned not to sound like moderates. You're showing a gain of 10 seats; I see something more like five or six, and I'm a progressive. The Republican nominee is almost certain to be Bush. Hillary should beat him handily but what we don't know is the degree to which Obama's following among blacks will hold for her (probably), if Hispanics will turn out in large numbers for the same margins Obama got (numbers, yes; margins, probably not), if she'll get more of the white vote more than Obama did(certainly), and whether she can rely on a big and enthusiastic turnout from female voters (totally unknown at this point). Right now she's crushing Bush everywhere except FL (and even there she has a small lead). How much of that will translate into the Senate vote -- who knows?