Talk:Futurology: Prediction Methodology

Danila, I thought of something basic, but kind of important-

the technique of elimination.

There are futures where you can go, "Oh. No. Not going to happen. Never going to happen." Because you have some knowledge that makes it clear that that scenario or vision or trend simply won't happen.

Sometimes you can eliminate because someone simply hasn't thought things through. They say something like: "We'll have mind uploads in 100 years, but we won't have AIs for 1000 years, not until 3000." Or they say something like: "We'll have fully immersive virtual reality in 25 years, but society's going to collapse in 70 years, because there will be no more oil for cars."

Elimination: it's one of the most basic techniques we use, and people usually quickly agree with an undercutting argument.

Maybe it's not worth mentioning. I don't know. But if it is worth mentioning, I'm not sure where to list it.

LionKimbro