Belarusian Crisis (Seanathan)

Part of the Timeline (Seanathan)

Overview
The Belarusian Crisis was a series of ongoing political demonstrations and protests against the Belarusian government and President Alexander Lukashenko that eventually resulted in civil war.

The largest anti-government protests in the history of Belarus, the demonstrations began in the lead-up to and during the 2020 presidential election, in which Lukashenko sought his sixth term in office. In response to the demonstrations, a number of relatively small pro-government rallies were held.

Initially moderate, the protests intensified nationwide after official election results were announced on the night of 10 August, in which Lukashenko was declared the winner. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the main opponent of Lukashenko, rejected these results as falsified and claimed instead to have received 60–70% of the votes. On 14 August, she announced the creation of the Coordination Council, with membership applications open to all Belarusians who also agreed that the official election had been falsified. On 12 October, the Coordination Council issued Lukashenko an ultimatum to cease all repression, free detainees and step down from the presidency by 25 October. After Lukashenko failed to comply, nationwide strikes began on 26 October.

On 23 September 2020, Belarusian state media announced that Lukashenko had been inaugurated for another five-year term in a brief ceremony. The following day, the EU published a statement which rejected the legitimacy of the election, called for new elections, and condemning the repression and violence against the protesters. On 2 October, the EU introduced sanctions against 40 Belarusian officials accused of political repression and vote rigging. Lukashenko himself was not included on the list. The Belarusian government responded by imposing symmetrical sanctions against an undisclosed list of EU officials. Moreover, Lukashenko accused the EU and other "Western organizations" of trying to "harm Belarus" by destabilizing the current regime while supporting the opposition.

By 2022, the situation had escalated into Civil War. By this point Russia and the rest of the Collective Security Treaty Organization had begun to aid the Belarusian government.

By 2023, Eastern European nations had begun to aid the Belarusian rebels.

By 2024, the European Defense Committee as a whole began to back the rebels, and by 2025 NATO had done the same.

In 2025, Russian troops occupied Eastern Belarus, in the name of anti terrorism. The military forces were alleged to have 'trampled protesters in their way' and 'massacred any protesters that dared challenge them'. The Russian government denied these allegations and called video evidence 'fake and edited'.

By 2027, an agreement was reached.

Causes

 * Authoritarianism and political repression.
 * Arrest of opposition presidential candidates Viktar Babaryka and Sergei Tikhanovsky.
 * Persistent electoral fraud in the country's elections.
 * Alexander Lukashenko seeking a sixth presidential term in the 2020 Belarusian presidential election.
 * Economic and social policies of the government.
 * Mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic in Belarus.

Belligerents
{| class="article-table" !Belarusian Opposition !Belarusian Government !Russian Forces
 * +Belarusian Civil War
 * Free Belarus! Army (Свабода)
 * National Popular Front of Belarus
 * Belarusian Independence Bloc
 * other anti-Lukashenko militias
 * Much of the Minsk City Police Department
 * other anti-Lukashenko militias
 * Much of the Minsk City Police Department

Anarchists:


 * Revolutionary Action
 * Anarchist Black Cross
 * Pramen


 * Special Purpose Police Detachment (AMAP/OMON)
 * Belarusian KGB
 * Ministry of Internal Affairs
 * 38th Guards Air Assault Brigade
 * Presidential Security Service (parts)
 * Other pro-Lukashenko militias
 * Russian Troops
 * Political Parties and Organizations:
 * Russian Troops
 * Political Parties and Organizations:
 * Political Parties and Organizations:


 * Green Party
 * Left Party
 * Socialist Resistance
 * Party of Freedom and Progress
 * Popular Front Party
 * United Civic Party
 * Women's Party
 * Young Belarus
 * Social Democratic Assembly
 * Social Democratic Party



Political Parties and Organizations:

 * Agrarian Party
 * Communist Party
 * Liberal Democratic Party of Belarus
 * Patriotic Party


 * Support:
 * Support:
 * Support:


 * Ukraine (Alleged 2022-2023; 2025-2028)
 * Baltic Council (2023-2028)

(Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia)


 * Poland (2023-2028)
 * Hungary (2023-2026)
 * European Defense Committee (2024-2028)

(France, Germany, Belgium, Austria, others)


 * NATO (2025-2028)

(USA, Canada, Germany, U.K, others)
 * Support:


 * Communist Party of Russia (2020-2021, 2025-2027)
 * Collective Security Treaty Organization (2022- 2025)

(Russia, Armenia, Kazakhstan, others)
 * Support:


 * Collective Security Treaty Organization (2025-2028)

(Russia, Armenia, Kazakhstan, others)
 * }

Aftermath
In 2027, an agreement was reached. Alexander Lukashenko stepped down from power soon after.

Russia was to annex their occupied territories and reorganize them into a semi-autonomous East Belarus Republic within the Russian Federation. A then 75 year old Alexander Lukashenko was appointed leader of this province in 2029, much to the dismay of the West.

The remainder of Belarus was to become a democracy called the Second Republic of Belarus. In 2028, main rival to Lukashenko, activist Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya was put into power, the next election set to be in 2030.

Belarus applied to join the European Union in 2028 and was accepted in 2033 along with Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina.

In 2030, Belarus had its first free democratic elections. The Belarusian Independence Bloc, a conservative coalition, was elected into power. The new president of Belarus became politician and leader of the Belarusian Popular Front (BPM party) Alaksej Janukevich. The new prime minister became banker and philanthropist Viktar Babaryka.