Great Gulf War (Countdown to Collapse)

The Great Gulf War, also called the Third Gulf War, was a military conflict that broke out between Iran and Saudi Arabia, involving all of the major powers in the region as well as the United States. It led to a global economic collapse as most of the oil producing facilities in the Persian Gulf were destroyed and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz was blocked. The Saudi, Emirati, and Bahraini monarchies collapsed to revolutions, and although the Iranian military was successful against the Saudi-led forces, the Islamic Republic was also overthrown shortly afterwards. The war thus left even more of the Middle East in conflict between different factions vying for power in this massive vacuum for decades to come. The economic fallout hit the U.S. particularly hard and was the beginning of the end of America as the world's superpower, and marked the start of the rise of South American countries.

Background
The war was a culmination of the Saudi-Iranian and the Iranian-Israel proxy conflicts in the Middle East. Following Donald Trump's successful reelection in 2020, who was loyal to Israeli and Saudi interests, the political leadership of these countries believed that they could go to war with Iran and count on strong U.S. military support. Although middle powers like Qatar and Turkey had been drifting away from the US-Saudi-Israeli alliance and began aligning more with Iran, and the Saudi campaign in Yemen was still a dismal failure, both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahoo and King Mohammed of Saudi Arabia (who replaced Salman after his death in early 2020) thought they could still defeat Iran due to their combined military superiority.

The sabotage of oil tankers in 2019, which led to nothing that year, served as a prelude and example that King Mohammed chose to follow in escalating the situation. On January 27, 2021, days after the start of President Trump's second term, two oil tankers, on Saudi and one Korean-owned tanker, exploded and sank in the Persian Gulf, off the coast of the UAE. Within hours, the US and Saudi Arabia blamed Iran for the attack and released footage showing what looked like Iranian commandos planting explosives on the side of a ship. The U.S. demanded that Iran publicly apologize and allow international inspectors to be stationed permanently in key Iranian military facilities on its southern coast, which Iran denied.

On January 29, an Iranian submarine was attacked and destroyed with the loss of its entire crew by Royal Saudi Navy ships, which claimed that it came to close to oil shipping facilities. War was declared by Saudi Arabia, followed by its other Gulf allies, and the United States, on February 1, 2021. Qatar declared neutrality, but the Saudis declared war on the emirate later that day, while Turkey, Iraq, and Syria announced their support for Iran. The UK and France, with their naval assets in the region along with America's Carrier Strike Group 12, also joined in against Iran.

Initial Iranian attacks
Within hours on February 1, the Iranian armed forces were mobilized and the Iranian navy blockaded the strait of Hormuz, announcing it was now closed to civilian shipping. Several oil tankers were captured by Iranian gunboats and ordered to turn around or be sunk. The situation escalated when the USS Mason, an Alreigh Burke-class destroyer of Carrier Strike Group 12, was struck by several missiles fired from a submarine and sank. The carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and its escorts traveled south from Bahrain to the strait to remove the Iranian presence.

As this was occurring in the sea, Iran launched a massive missile attack from its underground facilities on the southern coast. The missiles targeted primarily the oil and gas production facilities and ports along the Saudi, Emirati, and Kuwaiti coasts, with secondary targets including the allied nations' military assets in the same area. Although US, Saudi, and UAE air defenses responded, a large number of missiles made it through, doing heavy damage to the civilian infrastructure and merchant ships. The attack was devastating and plunged the global economy as a significant amount of the world's oil production was put to a halt. By the end of the first couple of days, oil prices passed $200/barrel. The Houthis in Yemen closing the strait of el-Mandeb to shipping as well as staging attacks on the recently-built Saudi oil pipeline passing through the country further worsened the economic crisis.

China, Russia, and several other countries voiced their support for Iran and condemned the "reckless" attack.

Invasion of Bahrain
At the same time, Iranian landing ships and submarines dropped off several thousands of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and regular army troops on the coast of Bahrain. Iranian intelligence coordinated with local Shia opposition leaders, who staged a mass uprising and rallies in Manama and other towns. The Bahraini military was overwhelmed in the chaos, with the Iranian force securing control of much of the island's government buildings by February 6. IRGC landing forces also took control of the Naval Support Activity Bahrain, the US naval base on the island. King Hamad fled the country to Saudi Arabia and established a government in exile in Riyadh as the revolutionaries proclaimed the Republic of Bahrain, with Iranian backing. Bahraini naval and air forces partially evacuated to Saudi Arabia, from where the would continue to fight.

Saudi Arabian developments
Shortly after the fall of Bahrain, riots broke out in Saudi Arabia and the UAE by various anti-Saudi and pro-democracy factions. As a portion of the Royal Saudi Land Forces advanced through Kuwait towards the Iranian border, the government struggled to gather enough forces to put down the simultaneous uprisings.

Battle of the Persian Gulf
On February 4, a confrontation took place as USS Abraham Lincoln and four destroyers attempted to break the Iranian stranglehold. Iranian attacks took out two of its escorts, Gonzalez lost to missiles from the coast and Winston S. Churchill to submarines. Iranian gunboats launched attacks, but these were mostly ineffective and only partially damaged the destroyer Mitscher.