A Mighty Endeavour (Scenario)



A Mighty Endeavour is my(Kuro's) attempt at creating a large-scale scenario for the future of the world. The specifics aren't that easy to explain, so I think I'll go from a more narrative standpoint. The scenario also features a fair bit of collaborative work whose credits go to numerous creative futurists - thanks.

2087
The year is 2087.

Asia remains in flux, with resurgent and new powers taking hold across the continent. An Indonesian-Japanese alliance. Turkey runs the Balkans and the Caucasus, and leads an alliance that even scares the American superpower.

The United States is still a global hegemony. Its power now stretches the whole of the Americas, its federative powers outliving those of the British crown. Africa has balkanised almost everywhere, with multiple regional powers taking hold and throwing the region into a little Cold War of sorts. Central Europe lies in destitution, although the Balkans and Iberian Peninsula thrive, Greece now a major power internationally.

China no longer possesses the power it once had at the beginning of the century. Its growth is long-gone, and the ironclad power once held by its leaders is now rapidly diminishing under the weight of political and economic instability and foreign intervention. India and Pakistan have somewhat resolved differences, and now allies against a dictatorship run from Shanghai.

Welcome to A Mighty Endeavour. Named for the quote of Franklin D. Roosevelt's prayer on the dawn of D-Day, this scenario discusses a future. It is likely not ours. But it is perhaps one.

"...Our sons, pride of our nation, this day have set upon a mighty endeavour. A struggle to preserve our republic, and to set free a suffering humanity."

"...their road will be long and hard... ...men's souls will be shaken with the violences of war..."

"...in this hour of great sacrifice..." "...we shall prevail.""Franklin D. Roosevelt, June 6 1944."

Phase 1: The American Pullout and the Loss of Global Trade
Phase One concerns the loss in international relations that follows a sudden American pullout from the international scene. As the Navy that has protected international trade leaves, the world recoils in a sudden realisation on the utter reliance of this globalised world on the increasingly hated American power. It lasts from 2020-2038 and includes the McCain Incident, the Asian Crash and Depression, the Dissolution of the European Union, the Walkout of '31 and the Chinese Migration Crisis.
 * August 2020: The United States Ship John S. McCain is fired upon by the PLA Liaoning in an apparent incident. While this does not spark war, a week later, U.S Secretary of State Michael Pompeo meets with leaders across the world to announce the US' unilateral pullout from Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Afghanistan, Pakistan and others; and officially ends all US support to nations in Western Asia.
 * April 2021: Nicholas Maduro dies in a plane crash in the Atlantic Ocean after his plane is denied access to French airspace and is forced to turn around. This results in the Venezuelan military splitting into multiple factions, allowing the country to come under control of Juan Guaidó.
 * March 2023: Chinese naval ships again engage in an act of aggression when three shells land on the coast of Taiwan. Fifteen are killed and Canada, the US and later Mexico, cut relations with the People's Republic of China. Chinese citizens in said countries are left as 'citizens of non-countries' or accelerated green card holders in a controversial settlement.
 * 2025 - 2026: Chinese overinflation and overcrediting comes to its end as the entire Chinese economy crashes. Nations which are major traders with China suffer first, but the world comes to a head with an international economic depression; however, the US, having essentially retreated from the global economic system, suffers the least of all of the world powers. Italy, Montenegro and Serbia declare bankruptcy.
 * November 2026: Losing in the Presidential election but refusing to admit defeat, Jair Bolsonaro declares marshal law in Brazil. For the first time in Brazilian history, the Supreme Court and National Congress convene and forcibly remove him from power, ending his reign in Brazil.
 * August 2027: The Russian Federation invades and occupies the Baltic States. Outrage is elicited as the various powers of Europe condemn it, but none, crippled by economic depression, are able to take action; NATO, having dissolved only a month before, is absent from defending the region.
 * December 2028: The European Union meets for the very last time before all but 8 members of the EU leave. It reforms to the Western European Economic Federation (WEF), consisting of France, Germany, Poland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Belgium and the Netherlands. The remaining members repeal Article 50, attempting to prevent further leakage from the organisation.
 * 2029: Libya is all but fully declared a failed state. Its successor is the Tripolitanian Republic, which refuses to claim any part of further inland former Libya.
 * May 2029: Chinese skilled labour, already having begun an escape abroad, is shocked to learn of the new 'National Re-employment Policy', forcing multiple skilled workers into menial jobs for low wages. In response, the Chinese Migration Crisis further escalates, with 2.3 million people fleeing abroad that very year. For the next decade refugees will flee Chinese shores.
 * December 2029: Six NASA astronauts land on Mars in the first Martian landing.
 * 2030: Russia invades and occupies Ukraine. At the same time, Turkey announces a policy of anti-Russo resistance and forms the League of Black Sea Powers, consisting of Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, Georgia and the Ukrainian government-in-exile. The alliance almost immediately declares war on Russia, beginning the 12-year-long Russo-Turkish War.
 * 2031: Rocked by sky-high unemployment, Chinese delegates forcibly leave the yearly Shangri-La Summit in Singapore after being told that Singapore will no longer accept Chinese refugees. Changi, Kuala Lumpur, Ho Chi Minh City and Kaoshiung Airports close their doors to Chinese flights, starting a diplomatic meltdown that ends with the Walkout of '31 and the admission of Taiwan to the United Nations.
 * February 2031: U.S authorities discover a history of Chinese telecommunications companies routing data of foreigners directly to Beijing as well as evidence of widespread illegal activities in what is eventually dubbed the 5G scandal.
 * 2032: Angola invades and subjugates Mali and western South Africa. Meanwhile, Alberta begins a public bid for secession from Canada, which narrowly fails; soon after, British Colombia runs a similar vote and succeeds, becoming the 52nd State of the United States of America.
 * 2034: The Third World War begins. See Third World War (A Mighty Endeavour) for more details.

Phase 2: A World in Ruins and Almost Superpowers
Phase Two concerns the aftermath of the Third World War and the total loss of the International Order. A power vacuum left by three superpowers leaving the world alone gives rise to a democratic militarism in Japan, a Revolution in Arabia and an Argentinian Power. It lasts from 2039-2062 and includes the Second Russo-Japanese War, Libyan Crisis, Double Waves of Kenyan Flu, South American Conflict, Argentinian Rise and German Identity Crisis.
 * 2039: The Mark Directive, as it will become known, charts the United States for a period of change; placing North and Central America as a 'core region' of focus for the U.S, while its recommendations, a continued Japanese alliance, an overture to Southeast Asia and increased support to remaining American allies in Western Europe and Scandinavia become tenets of U.S policy. U.S military spending is drastically scaled back, although the navy retains all of its budget. The same year, the Protection of Emmigrating Asylum-seekers into the Continental U.S Act, or as it is more popularly known, PEACE, is passed, giving all illegal immigrants already inside the United States immediate and complete citizenship, as well as a special status for all Mexican nationals in the United States.
 * 2041: The JIAT Pact is formed, between Japan, Indonesia, Australia and Thailand, forming the basis of an economic and military alliance that further antagonises China. The same year, the March 1st Incident occurs in Shanghai, where residents are deliberately starved and shot by local government forces without any repercussions.
 * 2042: The Second Russo-Japanese War occurs when Japan invades and annexes Sakhalin Island from Russia. The Russian government, split off from its Eastern territories by Chinese Siberia, is unable to provide support and reluctantly secedes the territory. A month later, Japan engages in a surprise attack on Liaoning, forcing the creation of the Liaoning Special Administrative Zone, which will later become known as Ryonei-sho. Millions of Chinese citizens pour into the new zone, hoping for access to Japan and thus the United States.
 * July 2042: Bolivia invades and occupies Northern Chile after a nationalist-fascist government comes to power. For the first time in history, Argentina intervenes and returns the region back to Chilean hands, albeit forcing the Bolivians to accept free access to three ports on the Chilean and Brazilian coasts.
 * December 2042: The Russo-Turkish War ends with a resounding Turkish victory. At negotiations Chechnya gains independence, Ukraine regains Crimea, Turkish forces occupy the remainder of the Northern Caucasus and Russia is forced to hand over control of Caucasus and Ukrainian natural gas and oil pipelines to Turkish control.
 * May 2043: The three former Libyan states come into conflict after a bombing at the Tripolitanian Consulate in Benghazi. The conflict soon becomes a proxy war between France and Egypt, both of which are vying for the rich oil and shale of the region. The war will only end in two years' time.
 * 2044: A virus spreads from the African horn and reaches out to the rest of Africa and the world writ large. Within four months 5.7 million cases are confirmed, most centred around Ethiopia and Kenya; despite its origin, it quickly becomes known as the Kenyan Flu. By the end of the year 32 million cases will be confirmed across Western and Southern Africa, bringing war to South Africa once again as Angolan military authorities take advantage of the chaos to invade South Africa and neighbouring states.
 * November 2044: The International March for Life, held in various capitals across the Pacific ocean, protests Chinese government actions in the country as millions continue to die of starvation, a mounting death toll ranging anywhere from 78 to 124 million people. Despite this, little pressure is found during the emergency Party congress, and all but five CCP members voted to continue allowing Xi Jinping to remain President of China. The Andrews Negotiations, a series of economic and social reforms demanded of China for sanctions to be lifted and for diplomatic recognition to be restored, thus fails.
 * 2045: The First Saudi-Iranian War occurs and ends within four months with a resounding Saudi victory. At negotiations Iran reluctantly agrees to pull back forces from Iraq and (at secret negotiations) end funding to groups in Yemen, Israel and Syria. Despite this, hostilities continue, and the same year the United Nations expels Saudi Arabia and Yemen from the organisation; facing a U.S pullout over pressure from President Kennedy, the Security Council is disbanded and instead the Elected Powers Congress is founded.
 * 2046: A second strain of the Kenyan Flu is discovered in Southern Africa. While South Africa desperately takes actions to prevent the outbreak, a lack of Angolan adherence to quarantine and other rules causes the infection to come to all of Southern Africa. In the coming months it causes the total collapse of the Angolan Empire and forces South Africa to plead to neighbour Madagascar for assistance.
 * June 2046: A border skirmish between newly independent Guiana and Suriname results in Brazilian forces being deployed to prevent a war. Despite this, the war only escalates; Argentinian intervention forces an uneasy compromise between the two nations. Three years later this will be the spark for the South American Conflict.
 * 2047: The Union of England and Wales, Scotland, Ireland, Belgium, the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, Norway and the United States sign into being the Northern European Support Treaty, ensuring U.S support for all nations should they go to war. This provokes Russia, with aging Russian President Putin declaring war on Finland to show a message, but with secret plans already underway to assist Finland, the war becomes a resounding failure for a fighting force on its last legs. Russia is forced to pull back from the Baltic States and a large demilitarised zone roughly the size of the extended German Empire is put into place on the Finnish/Baltic-Russian Border. Months after Putin is found dead of apparent suicide
 * August 2047: President Xi Jinping dies. He is immediately replaced by Wang Zhi-Wen, who sets about negotiating a complete economic renewal of China, but plagued by a secessionist movement throughout Guangdong, Fujian and Hainan, she is unable to immediately begin.
 * 2049: The 3-23 attacks occur in Saudi Arabia, incited by several rogue groups previously funded by the Saudis. The attacks kill all 24 people on the immediate line of succession to King of Saudi Arabia, causing a crisis within the roughly 2,000 members of the royal family; Iran takes advantage of the event and invades the country with a renewed air force supplied by Turkish and Israeli-Palestinian belligerents. The Two Month War, or Second Saudi-Iranian War, ends with destruction that stretches the entire Saudi nation; and an irreprable civil war that will only end in a decade as the region's competing powers turn Saudi tactics against the nation.
 * April 2049: A second border skirmish, an assassination and two major alliances spark the South American Conflict. Between the Venezuelan-led Republiqué Powers and the Peruvian Coastal Allies, the war draws in both the United States from the north and Argentina from the south.
 * 2050: The J. Powers scientific and exploratory division of the University of Southern California creates the world's first multi-purpose heavy industrial vehicle, otherwise known as the MPHI truck or Indtrak. The vehicle shows immense promise with the building of roads and other infrastructure, and funding is further increased to the program in the hopes that it may drastically reduce the costs of land-based infrastructure.
 * February 2050: Wang Zhi-Wen is removed from power in China in a coup by young hardliner Zhang Yi-Zhe and is quickly kicked out of the country. Zhang institutes a policy known as National Chinese Socialism, which for all intents and purposes is a fascist policy that brings ruin to Southern China; 3.2 million casualties occur in an ongoing war between government forces and resistance groups funded in part by the JIAT Pact.
 * 2051: The South American Conflict ends with a radical redrawing of powers. The defeated Republiqué Powers (with the exception of Chile) are permanently absorbed into a single state known as the Federation of South America, while Argentina negotiates sea access through Chile and signs the Argentinian-American Naval Treaty, in which both nations agree to assist each other in conflicts and to never come to hostilities. Northwards, the U.S founds the Pan-American Free Trade Agreement, adding Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Belize, Guatemala, Haiti, Colombia, Panama, El Salvador and Venezuela to NAFTA.
 * 2052: The Reunification March occurs in Pyongyang, demanding that the city at least be handed over to South Korean sovereignty. Groups in the American-occupied North Korea begin to clamour for both reunification and establishment of two separate sovereign states, with the former being happily assisted by Japanese funders. Siberian insurgents declare the end of the Chinese puppet state in Siberia and begin the Siberian Insurgency against China, severely hampering resource operations in Siberia.
 * 2053: BP executives take charge of drilling operations off the Brazilian coast in what is effectively a British seizure of the 40-year-ongoing rigs. While they guarantee that a majority of profits (and no costs) will go to Brazil, the actions outrage Brazilian authorities, demanding that the rigs be returned to Petrobras. BP eventually relents, giving Petrobras a guarantee for all profits on the rigs and a promise to leave the region entirely in the next three years. The humiliating failure results in a large part of BP shares being bought by Total, who uses the leverage of having the British national oil company under their control to force through French issues with the UEW; securing an alliance with the British navy and all of French energy production.
 * 2054: The High-capacity Hydrogen Battery Version 54 (HCHB54) is created, finally allowing for more efficient energy storage beyond Lithium batteries. The industrial version becomes the basis for the fourth generation of Wind Turbines, coinciding with its creation, to store energy produced. This further pushes wind's advantage over other green technologies.
 * 2055: Tripolitanian, Fezzanese and Cyrenaican authorities sign the Malta Accords, firmly and finally putting a rest to Libya. Foreign funding and supermajor interest floods in as stability begins to abound in a newly strong region; to its east, Egypt loses control of the Suez Canal after Egyptian-funded insurgents attack an American passenger ship and U.S forces neutralise Egyptian military capabilities in the canal, forcing it to cede it to U.N control, effectively making it a Free State.
 * May 2055: After Egypt, losing control of Suez, declares war on the U.S in desperation and invades Suez, U.S Special Operations Forces (SOFs) effectively render Egyptian military capabilities moot in roughly a month before a land invasion from the Mediterranean forces the Egyptian government to surrender. It officially cedes Suez to the U.S, which in turn makes it the temporary U.S territory with the not-so-temporary name of American Suez.
 * 2056: Iraq, Iran, Israel and others sign into being the Western Asian Economic Group. Turkey opposes the new regional force, creating another war of competition with Egypt knocked out of the game. The Turkish, Iraqi and Syrian territories with Kurd majorities are thus promised independence by Turkish authorities in exchange for running an insurgency throughout the WAEG; the war in Saudi Arabia only thus escalates with the entry of a fourth group.
 * 2057: Siberia breaks out of the Chinese sphere of influence when the insurgents declare victory and create the Siberian Provisional Government. Japanese officials are sent to assist the SPG in their governance and JSDF troops are sent to Siberia to oppose Chinese actions, which is met with a suspicious leer in international politics. Meanwhile, the U.S and Japan institute the Security Guarantee, in which Japan offers security and protection for all trade moving through Southeast Asia; almost all nations in the region almost immediately sign up. Indonesia is able to negotiate special terms and it leaves Indonesia as a trading superpower.
 * August 2057: The threat of a second conflict finally ends the concept of Korean Reunification. Pyongyang becomes the Pyongyang Autonomous Region; South Korea renames itself Korea, and North Korea becomes P'yong'an Korea. With that, the Korean Civil War officially ends, and the PAR becomes a part of Korea.
 * 2058: A flood of Hyperloop completions throughout the United States in the early 2050s cause a massive de-industrialisation of major U.S cities, with families moving back into revamped and newer suburbs. The U.S birth rate enters the top 15 for the first time in seven decades; with the U.S population in that single year increasing by over 13 million across the country. Energy consumption increases dramatically.
 * 2059: Civil strife occurs in Germany between locals who call for a return of the recently-ousted Alternative for Deustchland government and younger generations which have mixed with migrant populations as Germany enters an immense identity crisis. The same year, all members of AfD are arrested and summarily imprisoned for inciting violence across Berlin and Prussia.
 * 2060: Provoked by a terror attack in Atlanta performed by previously Iranian-sponsored groups, the United States declares its intention to enter the Arabian conflict. U.S SoFs arrive in Arabia and former Yemen, sabotaging the various factions across former Saudi Arabia, already weakened by a loss of support. Within a year the U.S sets up the Provisional Arabian Government and begins to funnel funding into the region; rumours abounding of an American return. The same year, Sri Lanka signs off on U.S access to Hambanpota Port, and for the first time in two and a half decades a U.S carrier leaves the Pacific or Atlantic oceans.
 * 2061: Argentina, Indonesia, the United States, Japan and the Union of England and Wales create the Cross-Oceanic Alliance; the hyperloop system making its way to Japan, Taiwan and Indonesia. An international technological revolution begins to occur as President Benjamin Wayne declares that the U.S requires a global alliance to function to the best of its ability; marking the return of American ships to international waters.

Phase 3: The Second Baby Boom and the Return of Globalism
Phase Three narrates the technology that induces a baby boom and shocks the developed world. A second baby boom forces the United States to bring their Navy elsewhere and sends tremors through a world in chaos. Alliances are born, old enemies become friends, and the world once again shakes on the edge of an international conflict. It lasts from 2062-2087 and includes the Resource Breakthrough, Turkish Rise, African Economic Boom and Second Sino-American Conflict.
 * 2062: Nanhan, a breakaway separatist state in South China, becomes recognised as a member of the United Nations. In response, the nationalist Chinese government kills several UN humanitarian group members and expels the rest, an action that is met with international fury; mass executions begin the same year in what is dubbed the ‘second Cultural Revolution’, with skilled labour continuing to flee towards other nations. Japan receives criticism for forcible assimilation of Chinese immigrants into the local culture, in what will eventually begin the Japanese Progressive March and bring the Japanese Social Democrats to power.
 * 2063: Nigeria and Angola sign an agreement creating a bilateral oil production union in response to Libyan Shale. The same year, Islamist groups in Maghreb stage a coup in Algeria, sparking the Algerian Civil War, between said groups and the Algerian government. The United Kingdom and France send military reinforcements to the Algerian goverment.
 * July 2063: A Turkish nuclear submarine launches a payload of several cruise missiles at the Iraqi capital, Baghdad, leading to over 45,000 casualties, followed by a full-scale invasion from the North. Turkey and Iraq, and by extension Iran, go to war.
 * 2064: The first ever Mars Habitation Mission occurs when the USSC Retribution (callsign RET) is launched into orbit. The Retribution carries a crew of three hundred passengers to orbit of the Fourth Planet from the Sun for the next year and carries the United States to the first ever occurrence of Martian colonisation. At the same time, the French CNES begins a joint operation with the Japanese JAXA to operate a sustained base on the moon. The three in total are nicknamed the Trifecta Beyond.
 * 2065: The Russian Federation becomes the Federal Republic of Russia, and immediately grants autonomy to Siberia. This launches a wave of sudden oil investment, spearheaded by a (fake) prediction that states that Siberia will soon be completely inhabitable and urging businesses to move there as soon as possible.
 * 2066: In a first, one-third of all nations at the UN are led by female or LGBTQ+ leaders, amidst a backdrop of a sudden military buildup from Turkey, Russia, and others. Japanese commandos lead a raid on a facility in Bangladesh, incurring some amount of local backlash but no serious consequences; Japan is officially moved ahead of the United Kingdom and behind the United States in terms of military strength. Fifty thousand civilians are killed in a nuclear disaster in Iran when the country’s first and only nuclear facility melts down, irradiating parts of Northern Iran and the surrounding seas.
 * 2067: The number of astronauts set to travel to Mars in the next decade hits 12,000, a majority of which is French, Korean, Indonesian and American. Space debris collisions also hit an all-time high, with seven out of 57 launches hitting and being damaged by debris; the UN begins to consider an international effort to clear Low Earth Orbit of space debris.
 * March 2067: In a first, the total number of people with a fundamental understanding of Japanese crosses the number of people that understand Chinese, supported by a Japanese culture wave in Southeast Asia and the Americas; the number total for Chinese falls for another year to 1 billion, at a rate of decrease which experts warn will put the language’s survivability outside China at severe risk.
 * 2068: A ‘space gun’ is developed by French engineers, which uses a railgun-like propulsion system to launch spacecraft from a launch facility in the Azores which comes to be known as the Iiha do Corvo, after the local Corvo Island. The USSC Eisenhower, the first interspatial ship in history to carry an active weapons package, is launched; its armaments include a costly railgun system and others. U.S Congress begins a three-year-long fight to disarm the 1.2 trillion dollar per annual maintenance cost ship, which intimidates others into considering such a program.
 * 2069: Turkey declares victory in the Iranian-Turkish conflict, forcing Iran to secede Kurdish majority areas and accept membership in the Western Asian Trade Group. However, Kurdish militants, alarmed by the prospect of not being given independence, turn their arms right back against Turkish forces and begin the Kurdish War of Independence.
 * 2070: A rocket launch from Inner Mongolia goes awry when the payload fails in the upper stratosphere and mistakenly explodes; detonating what analysts say is called a 'heat reactor', using a large mass of plasma in order to produce electricity. Several nations begin the construction of potential alternative energy sources barely weeks after, sparking the Reactor Race of the 70s.
 * 2071: Terror attacks hit Singapore, completely derailing several trillion dollars' worth of industrial projects which would have been situated in the recently built Pawai-Senang Industrial Island and inducing an economic crisis throughout Southeast Asia. Unemployment strikes but instead supercharges President Angga Wirando of Indonesia's plan to cause massive social upheaval, using subsidies and promises of new homes to move millions throughout the country and build up the infrastructure of the country.
 * 2072: A series of genetic experiments by amateur CRISPR experimenters causes the first known man-made biological disaster in history. The experiments realign the code of strains of Rabies in such a way that it leaves infected relatively intelligent and thus drastically increases infectivity; an outbreak in Eastern Europe starts what some (falsely) term a ‘zombie apocalypse’.
 * 2073: Russian military forces launch the RIGC Kaliningrad, bringing Russia to the second nation in the world to ever launch a battle-capable warship to space. Unfortunately, the ship appears beset by error; an incident with the airlock kills a fifth of the crew in a widely-publicized incident. The same year, the number of international space launches hits 500 per year, with many urging the UN to reach a consensus on a solution to space debris.
 * July 2073: The N-‘’Akiba’’ crashes during launch, killing all of the crew and causing widespread damage to the Japanese launching facility off Okinawa. With reports of tampering by Japanese nationalists opposed to the ship’s only two lesbian passengers, from Yokohama to Chiba disenfranchised young persons, including ethnic minorities, LGBTQ+ persons and others protest against the Japanese government’s lack of intervention. The emergency elections that follow see a snap win for the Japanese Social Democratic Coalition, whom add Article 105 to the Japanese Constitution - a literal guarantee of the protection of minorities, a permanent and utter ban on workplace abuse, and enshrining a proportional minimum wage and universal basic income in Japanese law. The movement becomes celebrated worldwide.
 * 2075: Following the assassination of Prime Minister-President-King-Commander (no, this is not a joke title) Aigul Abdulin of Kazakhstan, a regional meltdown occurs when the nation’s various competing factions begin an unceremonious civil war that sucks in the region’s powers; Russia, Uzbekistan and China. The ensuing conflict throws in Tajikistan and others into the only major Central Asian war in history.
 * 2076: