2022 United States Senate elections (Gwoky)

2022 United States Senate elections
The 2020 United States Senate elections were held on November 8, 2020. 34 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate were contested in a regularly scheduled elections during the presidency of Democratic president Joseph Biden.

Republicans held every seat that was up for reelection. They also picked up 3 seats previously held by Democratic incumbents: Arizona, New Hampshire, and Georgia. Turnout was high for a midterm.

Key issues included economic recovery from COVID-19, the border crisis, and inflation. Republicans won over swing voters and turned out voters by pressing the border crisis, and, to a lesser extent, inflation. Biden's economic recovery plan won over some fiscal moderates and fiscal liberals and helped increase voter enthusiasm but not to the level Democrats needed to hold the Senate in a Democratic midterm.

Below are four predictions made on election day. Sabato's Crystal Ball, FiveThirtyEight, and Cook Political Report all used a probabilistic model and were well established. Gwoky.com used a margin-based model. Gwoky.com predicted every election correctly.

Georgia
Raphael Warnock, who had won a special election to replace Johnny Isakson in 2020, was up for reelection. He faced Herschel Walker, who easily won the Republican nomination after receiving the endorsement of former president Donald Trump. Herschel Walker tried to appeal to moderate-conservative black voters that voted for Biden in 2020 and Sen. Warnock and Sen. Ossoff in 2021 while still appealing to rural voters, who helped him win Georgia in 2016.

Early in the campaign, Warnock lead most polls by a substantial margin. However, as the national environment shifted and Walker had more high-energy campaign rallies, the race tightened. Still, the race was considered by political experts to be a tossup-Democrat leaning election.

Walker won in what many considered an upset. This was attributed to Walker's successful appeal towards conservative blacks and a lower turnout compared to 2020 and 2021 in Atlanta and its suburbs. Warnock returned to his ministry and remained a Democratic activist. He eyed a future challenge to Senator Walker in 2028 as well as eyeing a run for governor of Georgia in 2026. The Georgia Senate election was the closest election in the 2022 Senate cycle.

Nevada
Catherine Cortez Masto, who had been a 1-term Senator since defeating Joe Heck in 2016, was up for reelection. She faced Adam Lexalt, who easily won his primary. Adam Lexalt tried to appeal to rural voters as well as appealing to Hispanic voters by trying to promote the policies Trump used in 2020 to win over many Hispanics.

From the beginning to the end of the campaign, Masto was considered the favorite due to her incumbency advantage. Lexalt slowly increased his polling numbers as his name recognition increased and as he had strong debate performances. However, Lexalt never could break through in the way he wanted. Masto won albeit by less than polls portrait. This was due to both an overall over-performance relative to polls of Republicans nationwide as well as a last minute shift of independent voters towards Lexalt. This election cemented Masto's place as the senior Senator from Nevada. Lexalt went back into the background of Nevada politics, at least for the next couple of years.

Arizona
Mark Kelly, who had won a special election to replace John McCain in 2020, was up for reelection. He faced Blake Masters, who won a contested primary against AG Mark Brnovich. Blake Masters won the primary from strong debates and more populist messaging. Blake Masters tried to appeal to suburban voters in the Phoenix area that voted against Trump in 2020 but were willing to support more conservative policies when the name "Trump" was not named.

Early in the campaign, Mark Brnovich lead most polls and was considered the favorite. Arizona generally supported incumbents and Mark Kelly was an astronaut. Blake Masters cleared the gap to an extent when he became more well-known after heavy advertising and strong debate performances against Mark Kelly. However, Mark Kelly was still ahead in polls and considered the favorite in the general election. Blake Master's victory over Mark Kelly was considered the largest upset in the 2022 Senate cycle. Blake Masters won because in large part due to low Democratic turnout in Maricopa County. He also won a large number of moderate voters that voted for Mark Kelly in 2020. Kelly lost what was considered to be an easy win. This made him lose much of his relevancy. Mark Kelly retired from public life after this election.

Pennsylvania
Incumbent Republican Senator Pat Toomey retired after serving two terms. Despite facing a crowded field, Sean Parnell consolidated enough support in his party to easily win the Republican nomination. Parnell was considered a strong candidate because he almost beat Connor Lamb, a popular incumbent, in a district that resembles the rest of Pennsylvania well. Two major candidates - incumbent Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman, and Representative Connor Lamb, who decided not to run for reelection due to gerrymandering, campaigned in one of the most competitive senate primaries in the 2022 election cycle. Connor Lamb ran on a relatively moderate campaign that focused on winning by large margins in the suburbs. John Fetterman, on the other hand, ran a populist campaign that focused on winning over the voters that voted for Obama and then Trump. John Fetterman won the Democratic primary.

Early in the campaign, Fetterman lead most polls by a high single-digit margin. However, this margin narrowed as the campaign continued and Parnell gained more name recognition. Parnell had two strong debate performances that turned this election from a probable flip into what was considered the most competitive Senate election in 2022. Pennsylvania was the most expensive Senate election for both parties. Sean Parnell beat John Fetterman by a 2-point margin. Parnell outperformed polling significantly. Fetterman later ran for House of Representatives. Pennsylvania was the tipping point for control of the Senate in 2022.

New Hampshire
Incumbent Senator Maggie Hassan ran for a second term. She faced Chris Sununu, who was serving his third term as governor. Sununu tried to maintain the coalition of Trump supporting Republican voters, libertarians, and moderate-liberal voters who typically voted for Democrats who supported him in 2020.

When Sununu announced his candidacy, the election went from being a Democratic leaning race to being a competitive election. Hassan attacked Sununu and tried to tie him to cultural conservatism and the "far-right", which was unpopular in New Hampshire. Polling showed that Hassan was slightly ahead of election day after she gained momentum from attack ads and strong debate performances. Chris Sununu beat Maggie Hassan in what considered an upset. Hassan retired from public life after this election.