Thread:IAmFester96/@comment-24660155-20190501022234/@comment-35244253-20190502154642

AllianceScoutAiothai wrote: So, your biggest problem is Utah going blue, lol? I've explained this mutiple times, but here we go again: rising Hispanic populations, a crumbling GOP stagnated by a Second Great Recession and outdated beliefs, declines in the LDS, and an overall progressive shift in the United States are just some of the reasons behind Utah's flip.

I'll be the first to say it, I take risks. In the admittedly unlikely event Utah goes blue so soon, I want to be the first person to have called it. If you look at the original version of Joe's World, one of the most respected timelines on the Wiki, Hillary Clinton carries Arkansas in 2016 while Democrats pick up Arkansas in the Senate. Yes, it was unrealistic and wouldn't happen, but in such an uncertain age, taking risks with your timeline is ironically not unreasonable. Joe's World also saw Sean Parker win the Presidency in 2032, mirroring the rise of Trump.

It's not that I mind you calling me out for unlikely predictions, but generalizing all my work as "awful" is a little silly. First of all - I used Utah as an example. Your senate picks for 2020 are also implausible and your predictions are heavily biased towards the Democrats and Libertarians down the road. 2: I didn't say your work was awful - your writing is among the best on the site. You've not been afraid to call out criticism before and I'm quite surprised you took a random comment on Discord so seriously that you had to bring it to my message wall.

The events that you have just listed are not enough to flip Utah. Maybe somewhere like Texas. The financial crisis didn't make Utah flip either. Even when the vote was split 3 ways in Utah, Trump beat Clinton by 18 points.

Albeit times can change,  you have Kamala Harris winning in Ohio, Utah and Missouri, but not Iowa or Pennsylvania, or in Harris' case, Georgia or North Carolina. That's not a plausible map in the near future (Presidential Elections don't change that rapidly in the modern day) and Kamala Harris certainly can't create that map. She lacks the appeal.

Your Senate predictions are also unrealistic, much more than your 2024 prediction. A Democrat won't win Louisiana and they won't unseat Daines. Kentucky is a very, very long stretch, Mississippi, even moreso. Cornyn's seat is also probably going to be safe. Regardless of the circumstances, he's much more liked than Cruz. There are a few others that are also a stretch but in the worst circumstances may go blue, so I won't speak about them.

You also have the Libertarian going from around 10 million votes and no states to winning the election four years later. The timeline is a bit of a Democrat and Libertarian wank, you must admit.

I was just pointing out your hypocrisy, as you have said many times that Trump will not win 2020 and the scenarios predicting it are unrealistic. However, the second somebody calls you out, you have to take it to their profile.