Talk:United States Presidential Election 2016 (LLB'sWorld)

Huntsman Presidency
Makes a decent amount of sense, but I only see Huntsman getting the nomination after the more conservative and ultra-conservative elements of the Republican party split up the primary vote enough for him to gain the nomination, though he'd probably make a tolerable Republican president, mainly because he's about as conservative as President Obama... come to think of it, there is almost no signficant difference in policy between the two beyond how they would implament climate change legislation. Which is probably why he doesn't have a chance in hell of winning the nomination this time around.YNot1989 03:21, March 23, 2011 (UTC)

Yeah, basically my plan with Huntsman is that he loses in 2012, and when the very conservative Pawlenty goes down, Huntsman blames it on the extreme conservativism of the Tea Party, giving him support as Republicans realize that they need to run a moderate to be able to win. I will add a couple more Tea Party Politicians though, as your idea makes sense. LurkerLordB 22:07, March 23, 2011 (UTC)

I can understand a Huntsman nomination; I can understand a Bachman 3rd Party run; what I do not understand is a Brian Schweitzer candidacy to succeed President Obama, I would imagine that Gary Locke (Former well loved two term Governor of Washington, Current Commerce Secratary and almost certainly future ambassador to China) or Former Governor of Kanasas and Current Secretary of Health and Human Services Kathleen Sebelius, or possibly even Governor Bill Richardson, would be more likely to be the Democratic frontrunners (I'm just not sure of Locke or Sebelius would want the job).YNot1989 23:27, March 23, 2011 (UTC)

Hmm... Locke or Sebelius both fit in to the scenario because of their connections to the Obama administration. Schweitzer I'd just heard mentioned somewhere as being one of Obama's potential VP picks in 2008, as well as a small movement to draft him, so I figured he might have support. Sebelius seems more liberal than Locke, so I'll change it to her. Richardson, who left office in the midst of a controversey that ended his chances of being Secretary of Commerce, does not seem very popular with many progressives who live in my neighborhood. Thank you for your help- this is my first true attempt to make a good political scenario (vs. my highly conservative New Age scenario I deleted) LurkerLordB 00:39, March 24, 2011 (UTC)

Consider revaluation?
I really appreciate and enjoy the amount of effort and detail you've made in presenting your election predictions. I especially appreciate your faith in Jon Huntsman to be a successful Republican nominee. I agree - he's actually the best chance they've got and could actually win big were he nominated. But I don't believe he can be nominated. I think it was really dumb of him to throw his hat into the ring last year. He knew he could never win - especially as the party was raging for strong conservatives and there he was speaking Chinese to them and competing against his clone already in the lead in the guise of Mitt Romney (Ok, clone is not an accurate description but they had an overwhelming number of similarities and constituents).

But the odds of Huntsman winning the nomination in 2016 are very low. The reasons being his failure to make any impact last year hurt his reputation, him being similar to failed candidate Romney and his current ostracism by conservative groups. He didn't event attend the Republican convention. 2020 will be a better shot. At the moment he works at the Brookings Institute - a reputably liberal think tank and is closely observing what Chris Christie is going to do before making a decision.

Chris Christie of course is going to run. Weather or not he gets re-elected in New Jersey. I don't know why he is missing on your page. Like Huntsman him being a moderate may stop him from winning. Rubio and Rand are clearly already running, just looking at their recent senate votes against the fiscal cliff deal and against the hurricane Sandy relief package they're aiming to earn the support of the conservative wing. Bobby Jindal is another establishment figure with enough support to run as well but he can still choose which wing to woo.

Michelle Bachman on the other hand has no constituency. From her extremely poor showing in 2012 when every candidate apart from her (nor Huntsman!)had their 15 minutes topping the polls the only time she was barely relevant. In the end she almost lost her house seat in Minnestoa by 4000 votes. I think 2016 will see her putting all her effort into protecting herself - a third party run will very likely see her kicked out of of congress. And no way Palin takes second string on a third party run. Either she's the candidate or she's out. And at this stage no third party is winning any states without a really charismatic figure (or a local guy attune representative of the state politics of certain states) and Bachman isn't it.

On the democratic side I also have doubts about the nomination of Sebelius. She has good cred from both the progressive and conservative wings of the party, but since she's going to continue being Secretary of HHS its hard to see her making a run from within the administration. It would be controversial. She would be resigning today if she had presidential plans (like Hillary is!).

But on the grounds that Clinton doesn't run, Mario Cuomo is the most aggressive candidate for 2016. He has bipartisan cred, supporting New York Republicans and their hold of the state senate. Which is one reason he would have a tough primary and probably even draw in Sebeluis in order to give him a strong challenge from the left. Schweitzer is a really charismatic guy, though. His low name recognition in 2012 doesn't mean that much. If he enters the ring, he'll be noticed.

Actually your democratic primary roster is completely unrealistic. Its missing certainties like Cuomo and Martin O'Malley, but had candidates that will definitely not be running like Kucinich (retired) and a silly addition of Alvin Greene that hurts the plausibility of your page. Anyway these are my thoughts. Can't wait till Huntsman proves me wrong! Jakeepping (talk) 15:00, January 12, 2013 (UTC)jakeepping