Board Thread:General Discussion/@comment-75.161.33.144-20140816201359

Had a chance to be part of a discussion with a delegate from one of the two major political parties (not saying which because it doesn't matter). Here's what he/she said about the upcomming war with Mexico:

1) It'll happen about 3-6 years after 2012

2) American SOF will adgetate one of the cartels into attacking American soil

3) The federal government and the federal military organizations won't do the brunt of the work, it'll be civilians and likely National Guard that'll do the fighting.

4) The federal government will ally with one of the cartels therefore the war will be against the other and likely the puppet government which will, by that time, be controled by the hostile cartel.

5) Private citizens, Hispanic Americans, and regional militias will become the heros in the fight and the result of the war will involve the annexation of part of northern Mexico.

Here's what I can add to each point from my understanding of Realpolitik, game theory, and basic geopolitics.

1) Hostilities will increase once Russia/China tries to get a better relationship with one of the cartels. Russia wants bases in Mexico since the Russian military is a ground-based force which can hold off American air power.

2) SOF will have to give us the casus belli for three reasons:

---A) Military intervention of the traditional sort wouldn't be popular especially with the American left wing and Hispanic Americans. Why? Because it'd be seen as white people ganging up on a non-white country for reasons which don't matter to the average man on the street (California liberals probablly wouldn't mind having the Russian military setting up bases in California... until they do)

---B) Cartels aren't supid and would gladly do the things which would hurt America long before they'd actually attack America. The enemy cartel wouldn't start attacking the South West until they have Russian/Chinese backing and, by that time, it'd be too late to avert a massive military opporation.

---C) Hispanic Americans have to play a key role on the side of the United States otherwise their support would be callenged by Mexican propaganda and ethnic front groups. It's hard to make a war about races when people of the same race/ethnicity are on opposing sides.

3) The military can't operation on American soil due to the Posse Comitatus Act and, due to the nature of the conflict, would be best to stay out of homeland defense. This would give the National Guards and civilian militias far more importantce and thus ensure that the American defense forces are made up of people who's ethnicity and values reflect the regional population. In short, the defensive forces would be highly Hispanic and rural white instead of city folks from the North East/West.

4) Mexico will need a new regime. Allying with a drug cartel, helping them fight and expend much of their more barbaric people and lifestyles, and transforming them into a new civil authority for reconstruction would be far more practical than trying to resurect the corrupted and dead Mexican government. By their very nature as an organized crime entity, cartels are already a quasi government and would be far more effective in maintaining and improving civil society than a new regime appointed by the United States.

5) If the United States in to be invaded and some of its territory seized by a foreign occupying force, the blood, sweat and tears of American militias and civilians fighting back would popularize the war and help bring people together. Ethnic tensions wouldn't gain a foothold in the American homeland and thus wouldn't be an effective strategy employed by Mexico in order to stir conflict in the USA and promote nationalism at home. Also, once the war ends and reconstruction begins, Much of northern Mexico will need to be annexed by the United States for three reasons:

---A) Northern Mexican civilians will be under the care of the United States and its military during the counter attack and positive relations will be a nesseessity. This will be had by promising them things that Mexico can't and citizenship without the requirement of actually packing up and moving is a pretty good incentive.

---B) The remaining Mexican authority will be weak and thus better off is some of the most battered territory of their country is ceded to the United States. This will allow them to focus on national unity, rebuilding and better foreign relations with their northern neighbor without having to be bogged down with civil instability and economic turmoil in their northern regions.

---C) The United States will benefit by being able to shorten the border, stimulate the economy by  giving companies and citizens access to new land, labor, and resources, and ensure that Mexico is a more stable southern partner. Wiith the legal transition in the terrority from Mexican anti-freedom restrictions to American pro-property rights ensured out national security interests and unimpeded by the economic self interest of various companies/unions/organizations which have power over congress.

In summary, A war with Mexico is inevitable due to the decay of their society and the national security risks such decay presents to the United States. The multi-ethnic background of the American south and southwest (where the fighting will occur) will help to defuse ethnic tension, popularize the war, and weaken Mexican nationalism. The original article ignored the realpolitik of Mexican-American relations and ignored the ethnic aspects of such a conflict. While its true that American self-interest would be the cause of the war, the path to its resolution would have to incorporate the self-interest of foreign and domestic groups and organizations. 