Scenario: NWO

The nationalist-populist wave in Europe was forced to compromise with the liberal factions, eventually replacing the EU with a more centralised and militaristic European Alliance. Gradually the European states became more independent as the U.S. continued its decline following Donald Trump's failed reelection campaign in 2020. Germany became increasingly powerful and assertive, leading Western Europe further from American dominance. The Germans moved closer geopolitically to China and Russia, eventually creating what was often called the "Berlin-Moscow-Beijing axis" in 2026. The German-led EU integrated with China's Belt and Road Initiative, as did the Russian-led Eurasian Union, leading to the creation of a trans-Eurasian economic and security structure. This would eventually expand to include many other nations in the Middle East and East Asia.

The devastation of the Saudi-Iranian War of 2030 led to a total change in the geopolitical order of the Middle East, most notably with the collapse of the House of Saud and the destruction of Israel. The newly formed United Arab Republic that succeeded the Saudis, consisting of the former kingdom and annexed Yemen, is in poverty due to the devastation and their oil reserves running dry, also being divided along tribal lines that the Saudi rulers had kept in line. Qatar, the Saudis' former adversary, has emerged as the leading Persian Gulf state, with the United Arab Emirates vying against them for influence in the region. The UAE and Qatar fought on opposite sides of the Iran war but the Qataris took the least amount of losses, while the UAE suffered more, and the former GCC remains split between their two blocs. Iran, meanwhile, became a nationalistic dictatorship claiming the legacy of the Persian Empire with the fall of the Islamic Republic during the war, after some military officers seized power in a coup. It chose to integrate with the China-Europe-Russia Eurasian alliance.

Africa and South America remained similar to the earlier state until about 2030. Most of the Latin American nations united to intervene in Venezuela, and in response to the military conflict there they signed the Charter of Santiago, establishing the Federation of the Americas (or simply the Federation). This organisation eventually expanded to include most of the Latin American states besides Mexico and its territories, and instantly made the new country a great power. Some African countries experienced more economic growth, and despite the collapse of several African states, some—including the East African Federation and DR Congo—went on to become middle powers in international affairs.

The U.S. collapsed in 2034 after a prolonged economic crisis and declining standards of living that came to a head with the "dollar crash" that year. This led to the disintegration of the American central authority and an end to the U.S. global empire. Most of the country came under the control of breakaway states and warlords. To restore order in the chaos, the other major powers partitioned intervened in the former United States into occupation zones. Before the collapse, many Western banks and financial institutions had already moved their centre of operations from the U.S. to other countries, most notably to Shanghai and Beijing. International organisations like the UN and World Bank also moved their headquarters to China. Since the early 2030s China has been considered the uncontested superpower, although its power is still a fraction of what the United States had enjoyed at its peak.

This created an environment that is much more chaotic than the previous century of the U.S.-led neoliberal international order, in which China is seen as the dominant power with Europe, Russia, Japan, the Federation and some Middle Eastern/African states following behind in varying degrees. With the end of the unipolar order the geopolitical situation is more similar to that of the 19th century.

Links

 * Timeline (NWO)
 * Nations (NWO)