2022 U.S Senate election in Florida (Porvenir)

The 2022 United States Senate election in Florida was held on November 8, 2022, concurrently with the Florida gubernatorial election, and other elections to the Senate and House.

In the single most expensive campaign of the cycle, Orlando Congresswoman Val Demings defeated incumbent Senator Marco Rubio to become the first female Black Senator from the South.

Background
Despite an electoral routing across the country in 2020, former President Donald J. Trump had carried Florida for the GOP in a second consecutive victory. Trump's ability to maintain a state that became more and more heavily populated by Blacks, Hispanics, and other people of color by the year gave the divided GOP hope for the future of the Sunshine State. Nevertheless, President Biden managed to keep the state competitive throughout the night and became the first Democrat since Bill Clinton in 1996 to win in the Republican stronghold of St. Lucie County. Unlike other swing states such as Ohio and Iowa which trended firmly red in the 2020s, Florida remained the battleground kingmaker it'd been for decades.

First elected in a 2010 special election, Miami native Marco Rubio had found difficulty in coming into his own identity. After initially arriving to the Senate on the TEA Party wave, and aligning himself with the libertarian-esque Rand Paul types of the party, Rubio instead positioned himself as a neoconservative with radical tendencies. The Cuban-American was unapologetic in pushing for increased U.S imperialism particularly in Latin America - openly calling for U.S intervention in Venezuela to secure the interests of American oil companies - and a nativist approach to immigration, angering former Latino supporters on both counts. In spite of Rubio's run to the right on select issues, he failed to find any sort of following amongst conservatives. With average voters against him in large part and the right offering tepid support at best, Rubio held approval numbers well below 50%. Democrats however still faced the challenge of drafting a candidate strong enough to overcome Rubio's financial advantage, as major Republican donors continued to back the former rising star.

Democratic Party nomination
Democratic candidates

As Demings quietly informed her party of her intention to run for the seat, all hypothetical major opposition bowed out in order to prevent a bloody primary. Fellow Orlandonian and U.S Representative Stephanie Murphy opted to seek reelection to the House and challenge Rick Scott in 2024, while St. Petersburg U.S Representative Charlie Crist sought his old job of Governor against incumbent Ron DeSantis. Former State Attorney Aramis Ayala, while lesser known, had also been seen as a potential progressive challenger until she decided to run for Demings' soon to be vacated House Seat. Former Orlando Congressman Alan Grayson returned from his political hiatus to pick up Ayala's left-wing lane, but was never regarded as a serious contender.
 * Val Demings, U.S Representative from Orlando (Nominee)
 * Alan Grayson, former U.S Representative from Orlando
 * Wayne Messam, Mayor of Miramar

Demings was fortunate to avoid a contentious primary, easily defeating Grayson along with several other minor candidates to save her funds and energy for the general election.

Republican Party nomination
Republican candidates


 * Marco Rubio, U.S Senator from Miami (Nominee)

Conservative dissatisfaction with Rubio was evident from grassroots Republican efforts to draft Walton Beach Congressman Matt Gaetz or Miami resident Ivanka Trump to primary him. In an effort to unite the party, Donald Trump the man he once disparaged as "Little Marco" in 2021, allowing him to control the primary over several no-name activists.

General election campaign
Demings had secured Democratic support even during the primary. Once the primaries officially drew to a close, DNC efforts to topple Rubio were amped up to the nth degree. Unconcerned with dominating in Orlando County, barnstorming was focused on Miami and Broward counties, both of which held majority Hispanic populations. Demings herself held over 20 rallies in Miami alone, showcasing her Spanish-speaking prowess and promising not to turn her back on migrants as Rubio had. Little lip-service was paid to social issues, with outreach to Hispanics revolving around immigration and amnesty, appeasing devout Catholic immigrants. Aside from her appeal to Latinos, Demings embraced her work with congressional progressives on lowering insulin prices. While Rubio attempted to depreciate his rival as an extremist, running ads with her image next to that of Democratic-Socialist Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Demings reminded moderates and independents of her tenure as Orlando City Police Chief, arguing that her policies, while populist, remained within the confines of social-democratic capitalism. Demings surrogates included writer and future President Diego Braun, who spoke on Demings behalf to the Cuban-American communities, and activist and future Vice President David Hogg, who ripped Rubio as a "sellout" for his multi-million dollar donations from the NRA. President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris also traveled to Florida for Demings, holding events in the counties they'd carried. Trump, who remained somewhat popular in his adopted homestate, campaigned briefly for Rubio, but was noted as having spent little time advocating for the Senator.

In total, Demings and Rubio spent a combined $375 million dollars, topping the Georgia Senate races of 2020 as the single most expensive Senate race in American history, a record that would remain unbroken until the 2026 U.S Senate election in New Hampshire.

Results
As anticipated, the vote count lasted beyond the night of November 8, extending into the morning of November 10. Rubio remained in the lead until more votes came in from Miami. Demings' relentless campaigning allowed her to narrowly top Rubio in the Magic City, flipping the county 49.5-49%, and leading her to a statewide victory. Rubio followed in the mold of Trump in demanding a recount, though this quickly proved futile, as the November 17 recount ended up handing more votes to Demings, who was solidified as the first Black female Senator from the South in American history.

Rubio would later be U.S Ambassador to the Eurasian Union in the Todd Young administration, and the Republican nominee for President in 2036, later becoming the biggest electoral loser since Walter Mondale in 1984.