Kurdistan (Instability Theorem)

Kurdistan, officially the Republic of Kurdistan, is a landlocked nation in the Middle East. The nation gained independence in 2022, after the Kurdish War of Independence.

Kurdistan is bordered by Turkey to the north, Iraq to the south, Syria to the west, and Iran to the east. Kurdistan encompasses the northwestern Zagros and the eastern Taurus mountain ranges.

Independence
Iraqi Kurdistan held a referendum on September 14, 2021 to determine whether Kurdistan should remain a part of Iraq or break away to form an independent nation. This would be the first referendum held in Kurdistan since 2017. Unsurprisingly, 97.8% of voters voted for independence, while 2.2% of voters voted to stay in Iraq. Kurdistan issued its declaration of independence on November 1, 2021. Iraq declared the declaration false and stripped away much of the autonomy Kurdistan had beforehand.

Further information: Kurdish War of Independence

Kurdish fighters attacked Iraqi troops in Erbil on November 21, sparking the Kurdish War of Independence, or as it's known in Iraq, the Second Iraqi Civil War. ISIL was still a ragtag extremist group, and the Iraqi morale was very low. When Kurdish fighter groups closed in on Samarra on December 14, The Iraqis were pushed back. Iraq formally surrendered in the Treaty of Baghdad. This is considered one of the shortest independence wars in history. Kurdistan applied for UN membership in February, and Kurdistan was recognized as a nation by the United Nations when the Security Council formally recognized Kurdistan on March 14, 2022.

In 2034, Kurdish secessionists began appearing in southern portions of Turkey, and were successful in capturing a few small cities and towns in Turkey. The Turkish government blamed Kurdistan for this, and declared war on Kurdistan on January 4, 2035. Kurdistan denied any involvement in the rebels. NATO initially sent troops to aid Turkey, but removed them soon after due to Turkey being the aggressor. However, it still sent financial aid, as the United States wanted to have an operating base in the Middle East. The Kurdish secessionists were successful, and following the signing of the Treaty of Ankara, the southern portions of Turkey were seceded to Kurdistan.