2024 Presidential Elections (Bonsai Timeline)

2024 U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
President Biden was nearing the completion of his first term as the President of the United States of America, amassing an average approval rating of 45%. His administration was credited for managing the economy well enough to prevent a recession as a result of the 2019-2021 coronavirus pandemic and for increasing America's part in global organizations, diplomacy and strengthening ties with countries such as China, Iran and Venezuela but criticized for not doing enough in terms of the healthcare system and balancing the budget, with the deficit steadily growing. The Venezuela Crisis was getting worse and worse, and tensions raged on in the Middle East between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The global economy was still in recovery, with China and America staying afloat while countries such as Russia, India and Saudi Arabia hit badly. While Biden was considered a decent and inoffensive president, the people yearned to go back to a time of economic prosperity and relative peace reminiscent of the Reagan and Clinton era.

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES
President Biden, at the age of eighty-two, was the oldest person to assume presidential office, and his declining health had become apparent- having invoked the 25th Amendment a record five times during his tenure. Despite this, Biden was keen on seeking re-election. As expected, Biden won all of the offered delegates in all of the primaries and was easily re-nominated in the 2024 Democratic National Convention, along with Vice President Elizabeth Warren as his running mate.

REPUBLICAN PRIMARIES
The Republicans had seen a harrowing defeat in the 2020 elections. Not only had President Trump lost the Presidential Elections to Joe Biden, but they had also lost their majorities in the Senate to the Democrats. However, they did win a majority in the House of Representatives, with Mitt Romney taking over a now-retired Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House. As a result, they were unsure of the direction to take forward from the Trump years, especially after Trump's Vice President Mike Pence declined to run in the 2024 elections.

Declared candidates included television personality Tucker Carlson, Governor of New Jersey Chris Christie, Governor of Florida Ron Desantis, former UN ambassador and Governor of South Carolina Nikki Hayley, former Governor of Arkansas Mike Huckabee, Senator from Kentucky Rand Paul, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, former Governor of Arkansas Bill Weld and celebrity rapper and influencer Kanye West. Candidates were positioned all along the political spectrum- Hayley and Desantis more moderate, Christie, Huckabee, West and Pompeo more conservative and Paul and Weld more Libertarian.

Foreign policy was the largest factor in the Republican conversation and the GOP debates- a non-interventionist policy was favoured, and experience was brought up frequently to denounce the campaigns of Carlson and West. Early national polling showed Pompeo leading with 30% of the national vote, followed by Hayley at 27%, Desantis at 20%, Huckabee at 10%, West at 8%, Paul at 4%, Christie at 4%, Weld at 2% and Carlson at 1%. West raised the most money in Q4 at $20M, followed by Pompeo at $17M, Hayley at $15M and the rest under $10M. Carlson and Weld dropped out before the primaries due to low polling numbers on October 1st and November 20th respectively.

The Iowa caucuses were held in January 2024. Out of the 41 delegates, Pompeo won 15, Hayley 12, Desantis 6, West 4, Huckabee 1 and the rest at 0. Following the divided Iowa caucuses, Rudy Giuliani announced that he would be entering the candidate pool beginning from the South Carolina primaries as a "uniter" of the Republican party- a move compared to that of Michael Bloomberg's in the Democratic primaries in 2020 that was largely unsuccessful. The New Hampshire primaries saw Pompeo receive 9 delegates, Hayley 8, West 3, Desantis 3 and Paul 1. Following his poor results, Chris Christie suspended his campaign and endorsed Pompeo.

However, Hayley pulled an upset during the Nevada primaries after severely outperforming Pompeo in the Nevada debate and launching a successful attack on Pompeo's authoritarian foreign policy plan. Hayley won 15, Pompeo 11, Desantis 6, Huckabee 3 and West 1. Following the Nevada primaries, Rand Paul dropped out of the presidential race and endorsed Hayley. The Nevada debate was the first debate participated in by Giuliani, whom had the highest speaking time of any of the candidates.

The South Carolina primaries saw Hayley once again take home a first place win. Hayley received 20 delegates, Huckabee 14, Pompeo 10, West 7 and Giuliani and Desantis both at 1 delegate each. Following these results and projections that they won't be winning Super Tuesday, Kanye West and Michael Pompeo both suspended their campaigns. Pompeo endorsed Huckabee.

Super Tuesday saw Hayley take home 410 delegates, Huckabee 290, Desantis 100 and Giuliani just 25. By now, Hayley had been positioned as a clear frontrunner. Desantis and Giuliani both suspended their campaigns. Hayley went on to continue a series of wins in the remaining Republican primaries positioning her as a strong and fearless leader who will build and respect President Trump's legacy. Huckabee dropped out on February 17 2024. Hayley was crowned the Republican nominee at the 2024 Republican National Convention, the first woman to do so, and chose Huckabee as her running mate in a move of solidarity.

THIRD-PARTY CANDIDATES
Rand Paul received the Libertarian nomination, beating out Gary Johnson. The Green Party nomination once again went to Howie Hawkins, whom outperformed expectations in the 2020 Presidential Race.

PRESIDENTIAL RACE
The presidential race was tight. There wasn't as much a call for change as there was in the 2020 elections, but there was a good amount of dissatisfaction about the Biden Administration. Both candidates were reasonably moderate for their parties, with more liberal/conservative running mates in Elizabeth Warren and Mike Huckabee. Early polling showed President Biden with a marginal lead. Key debate topics included President Biden's health, foreign policy and immigration.

President Biden received endorsements from prominent Democrats such as Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton, John Kerry, Al Gore, Bernie Sanders, Andrew Cuomo and Michael Bloomberg, as well as members of his administration. Nikki Hayley received endorsements from prominent Republicans such as Donald Trump, Mike Pence, Mike Pompeo, Dick Cheney, George W. Bush, Mitt Romney and Elon Musk.

On November 10 2024, the Presidential Elections took place. Incumbent President Biden won the popular vote 50% to Hayley's 48%, but she won the electoral college 285 to 243, thus becoming the 47th President of the United States of America and the first woman to do so in American history. Mike Huckabee was elected the 50th Vice President of the United States of America.