Second American Civil War (Instability Theorem)

The Second American Civil War was a short conflict between the United States of America, several separatist groups, and the Great Mexican States. The conflict was well known for increasing nationalism across the U.S.

Backstory
In 2032, after the Great Mexican Revolution in which fascist insurgents took control of Mexico, Mexico invaded Belize in a widely criticized invasion by the United States, NATO, and the U.N. Mexico was promptly kicked out of the G20 and the NATEZA (North America Trade and Economic Zone Agreement; successor to NAFTA). Mexico was successful in their occupation of Belize, but the United States threatened war if Mexico invaded anymore peaceful countries.

In 2035, the Texas Independence Front organized a peaceful protest in San Antonio, Texas, and though authorities attempted to quell the protestors, the sheer number (180,000) prevented then from doing so. Eventually, they began marching, and on April 5, 2035 (2 days after the original protest) things turned violent when a strip mall security guard mistook one of the protestors for a thief and ordered him to stay put. When he ran away, he was shot with a taser. This sparked violence, and the San Antonio Police were called in, then the SWAT, and finally, the Texas National Guard.

Eventually, by May 2035, the Texan Revolution occurred, which the CIA suspects the Russians and Mexicans may have funded. This began the Second American Civil War on May 28, 2035, when the state of Texas declared independence from the United States of America.

The War
Congress unanimously declared war on Mexico after it was determined by the FBI the Mexicans had funded the rebel groups now popping up in California, Texas, Hawaii, the Southeast, and Alaska. Though Mexico claimed it had nuclear weapons, it was only a bluff.

The Army pushed from Arizona to Sonora and from there, pushed into Sinaloa, Chihuahua,and other Mexican states. Mexico officially surrendered on September 4, 2035. With Mexican support gone, New England and the Neo-Confederate States of America surrendered by December.

However, Texas was pushing into the United States, and captured the cities of Oklahoma City, Albuquerque, and Santa Fe. After American air raids on Dallas, Austin, Houston, and Fort Worth, and a successful naval invasion of Baytown and the result Battle of Baytown, Texas surrendered on January 6, 2036. California surrendered on March 9, 2026, after the disastrous Californian invasion of Lake Havasu City. Hawaii surrendered on June 19, 2026 despite a weakened American Navy.

The Treaty of Toronto re-admitted breakaway states back into the Union as territories, and a Pro-American government installed in Mexico. Mexico would have to pay $12 billion dollars in compensation to the United States.s