Talk:Scenario: Human Mind Project


 * Yunzhong, I've moved your intro off the Human-Mind page to here. I think having it in the article is damaging to both you and to the article.  If you really want it, maybe create a page Future Yunzhong Hou predicting how you will be in the future.  You could then link to it from the article, and from other articles you create.  User::JC 5-Oct-2006.

Yunzhong Hou
''Yunzhong Hou is currently a budding futurologist. He will become an expert on this subject. By the time of the Human Mind Project, he was to become one of the great authorities on predicting the future. He joins us now on the Future Wikia to address this particular issue, the details of which he saw in his mind's eye over the course of several weeks. The following documentary is taken to be a scenario; of course, Yunzhong Hou does not know enough on this topic to merit any statement here to be a fact. Yet the steps that he reveals following the Human Mind Project and its consequences will show us much of what the future is to hold.''

"I am a futurologist. That means that I predict what the future will be like, so that people can plan for them. It also means that what I have to say may one day be remembered, and its words become influential in dictating our future. As Alan Kay once stated, the best way to predict the future is to invent it. Therefore, the best futurologists are those of above average intellect and breadth and width of knowledge and perception, who can more accurately predict the trends and points of divergence of the future. That said, the most accurate predictions arise from a handful of futurologist experts who can imagine a future world in their mind's eye in all its exquisite, unusual details.

I will soon lead you on a journey of one of the most groundbreaking projects of the twenty first century, namely the Human Mind Project. Now, this has not yet occurred, so the particulars are indeterminate. However, the revelation provided gives a general sense of what is to come.

The Present is based on the Past so the Future is Based on the Present
Here are some present day technologies that are under development that may contribute to this future scenario: Tapping into (stimulating) the nervous system with use of electrodes, especially with the use of prosthetics. Triggering of memories/sensations with electrodes - the next step could be mapping out the brain. Some work may have already been done on this. 24.22.219.38 12:28, 19 December 2007 (UTC)

Some skepticism
I enjoyed the writing of the article, and I like some of the things it says but...I feel that it is hard to accept your very basic assumptions. That is:

''Technology will continue to increase, and will increase faster and faster (its rate of increase is increasing), and the rate of increase of that rate is also increasing, and so on. Most futurologists refer to this concept as approaching a singularity. For the scope of this documentary, we note that the background technology is much greater than it was in 2006 (the time of writing of this article) and that it increases much faster.'' I don't agree with that, particularly. Just because the current shape of the development of technology appears to be exponential, it is impossible to extrapolate the future curve. I would argue, in fact, that there are multiple possible ways that technology could develop. One is as you suggest: exponential and always increasing. Another would be to follow that level until we reach a bottleneck or peak...and then a cataclysmic event simply puts us all back to square zero. Probably the most likely is the rather boring glass ceiling that we may one day reach. We can discover all there is to know in our own system, even conquer the other planets, but the distance from Earth to the nearest stars is so mind bogglingly vast...we may never conquer it. That would be very anti-climactic and unsaisfying, but certainly possible. So, while this assumption very well could be valid I would by no means accept it as obvious or imply true. In all probability I would say that is not what will happen.

As nation states continue to adopt peaceable foreign policies and as globalization continues, the state of the nations will not change significantly across the world.

First of all, that is self-contradictory. As globalization continues, the states of nations will change de facto because globalization is a form of change. Nonetheless, I would like to disagree that nations will continue to adopt peaceable foreign policies. In fact, we see in many cases a large segmentation and fracturing of populations into distinct and hostile groups. I forsee more large clashes than ever around the mid-21st century. The battlegrounds will be Africa and the Middle East. The players? A united Europe, Russia and the countries of mid-Asia, the United States and its North American Allies (except perhaps Mexico), the awesome power of India, and above all else China. There are more segments and more complicated divisions, of course. Once again, I feel that a peaceable world is a very heroic assumption to make.

''Society and culture will continue to adopt to new technological and political changes. Scientific inquiry will continue. This means development of newer, larger, and more complex research facilities for the pursuit of knowledge following the Scientific Method. As a futurologist once put it, the ninteenth century was the age of physics, the twentieth century was the age of chemistry, and the twenty first century will be the age of biology.''

The first part of this, see my opinion on part one. Assuming that human society will continue in a civilized fashion is a reasonable assumption, perhaps, but not one to be taken for granted. Regression is a distinct possibility in the years to come, due to a wide variety of factors. Growing disorder in many places in the world. The existance of nuclear and biological weapons and thevery real threat of an attack with these. Climate change. The growth of powerful new diseases. The list of dangers to humankind goes on and on, and we very well may succumb to any one of them.

As for that quote...no way. It's physics, all the way. Can you really say the twentieth century was an age of chemistry with the creation of atomic weapons, the theory of relativity, quantum mechanics, SPACE TRAVEL, and all of the greatest acheivements of physics happened in the past 100 years? It was (and is) the golden age of physics. If humanity wishes to continue its survival, we will have to travel further in space. And I would argue that if humanity manages to navigate the murky waters that lie before us, we should have reached another planet by 2100 and recreational space travel ought to be common somewhat sooner.

Biology, on the other hand, may very well be important. I agree with you on that one. Genetics is becoming a powerful science indeed, and I'm not sure where that will take us. But I see the continued development of that area, and indeed the ontinued development of all areas to also create brand new challenges for humanity. Did you hear about the superflu epidemic of 2038, the one that was manufactored in a US military base and wiped out 67% of the world population. Yeah.