World War III (The Expanse)

World War III or The Third World War (often abbreviated to WWIII or WW3) was a war between the European Defense Pact (EDP), North American Alliance (NAA) and the Sino-Russian Alliance (SRA), lasting from the 7th of February 2049 to the 27th of August 2058. It was the deadliest and most expensive war up until the First Sol System War in 2420.

WW3 was fought across the entire planet, from the Arctic Ocean to Antarctica and from Korea to Israel. Most, perhaps even all countries were either directly or indirectly involved with this conflict.

Some historians see the war more as combination of several smaller wars and 1 or 2 major wars. These minor wars include the Second Korean War, Palestinian War and several others. Most historians however disagree, arguing that since all wars had the same sides and happened around the same time, that they should be counted as one.

World War 3 was also the first war in which Strategical AI would be used to plan battles and campaigns. These are the precursors to the later Warminds and Planetary Defense Computers, though they weren’t nearly as advanced or independent as those systems.

Brexit and Scottish Independence
After the UK left the EU, several protests broke out in Scotland which demanded an independence referendum. The vote made Scotland an independent country, though the UK, US and several other countries argued that the referendum had no legal power. The EU did support Scottish Independence and established an embassy. After several years Scotland joined the EU and became one of the EDP’s founding members.

England, Wales and Northern Ireland stayed in the Union. Whilst Brexit did lead to some economic trouble and made international trade more expensive, but the UK held together. Anti-EU sentiment in the UK continued to rise especially after Scottish independence, meanwhile pro-US sentiment was rising.

Resource Shortages
In the early 2030s oil and gas prices began to skyrocket as the Middle East was beginning to run out of oil. At the same time Russia began hoarding its gas supply and only traded with close allies (most notably China). This would lead to escalating tensions between NATO and Russia. The EU and US would begin searching for other natural gas and oil deposits. Which would eventually lead to tensions within NATO itself.

The Collapse of NATO
Desperate for more oil, the US and Canada banded together to find more reserves to fuel the aging industry in both countries, which hadn’t seen a major upgrade in several decades. In 2033 a Canadian Oil Survey on Greenland found a large reservoir on the east coast of Greenland. The US asked for permission, but when it wasn’t given they decided to unofficially extract it anyways. This led to growing EU tensions, especially when a Danish ship that transported oil sank and the government blamed it on the US. Eventually making the EU leave NATO in 2036.

This led to growing anti-EU sentiment in the US. However they did increase relations with the UK. Meanwhile Iceland gave the US and Canada clearance to drill for oil in its EEZ in order to support its economy, which had been shrinking ever since the decrease of tourism after COVID-19. The US and Canada demanded the rights to be exclusive and paid a hefty sum to keep it that way, forming the North American Economic Union (NAEU), which would later become the more militaristic North American Alliance (NAA). This would lead to growing tensions between the Iceland and the EU and Russia, who all wanted as much of the oil as possible.

Formation of the EDP
In the years following the collapse of NATO France and Germany would push for a European military, which was, despite US pushback, officially formed in 2038. The European Defense Forces (EDF) absorbed several member armies and previous EU forces into 1 organisation. The EDF was tested in 2039 by attacking several terrorist outposts, even though it was victorious the tests were deemed a failure as they cost too many men and took too long. This event would lead to the EDF becoming more and more automated, eventually even creating the first strategical AI.

In 2040 the EU formed the European Defense Pact with the signing of the treaty of Rome. The EDP’s founding members were the EU and Norway, most other European countries alongside some North African countries would join within the following years. The EDP’s goal was to give Europe a global military presence, not just an economic one. The formation of the EDP led to growing tensions with Russia and the US and is often seen as one of the causes of WW3.

The Arctic
Due to global warming the arctic shrank and created a new arena for trade and conflict. Russia was the first major power to exploit the area, using it as a transport hub and military testing area. In response the Northern Countries formed a pirate-like organisation, the Valkyries, in 2044. These troops attacked Russian vessels and raided their goods, Russian investigation on these Valkyries did after nearly 5 years find their headquarters, located in the city of Tromsø.

When a geological survey reveals the location of one of the largest gas reserves on the planet, the US begins its investment in the Arctic. Whilst Americans had far less trouble with the Valkyries than the Russian, they too launched an investigation against them and later blamed the EDP for supporting terrorists, accusations that would later be repeated by Russia. Wanting to use Greenland not only for its oil, but also as a launch point for expeditions into the arctic ocean, caused tensions with the EDP to rise even higher.

The Antarctic
In 2048 the Antarctic Mining Ban came under review of the UN, which decided to cancel the ban. Immediately dozens of companies and countries created oil wells all over the continent. Some southern countries (most notably South Africa and New Zealand) banded together and argued that the Antarctic belonged to the southern countries, even blocking some ships from the other powers. Tensions quickly escalated between the SRA and New Zealand, eventually dragging them into the war.

The Invasion of Greenland
On the third of February 2049, Operation Snowfall began. A US-Canadian fleet departed from Nova Scotia on its way to Nuuk. The EDP quickly detected the fleet, warned the Danish troops on the island and began preparing its own fleet to combat the predicted invasion of Greenland. On the sixth of February, the American fleet made landfall near Nuuk and commenced the invasion. Within a matter of hours the small militia was forced to surrender and the city fell. At this point the US and Canada officially formed the NAA, declared war on the EDP on the 7th of February and resumed Operation Snowfall.

The troops went south to invade the other cities. Most surrendered without a fight as the militia had abandoned them. The Danish troops had been ordered to Narsaq, where they would meet up with the EDP fleet and try to hold back the NAA. The Battle of Narsaq began on 10th of February when NAA bombers attempted an air raid, but were shot down by EDP’s new anti-aircraft guns. In order to keep the fighting to a minimum, the American general decided to launch ballistic missiles, which destroyed most of the artillery and town. During the attempted evacuation, the European fleet was attacked and devastated. The loss was so significant that it kept the EDP out of the fight for over a year and the reserves gave the NAA a definitive advantage in the war.