Talk:2020 United States Presidential Election (Trump, Biden)/@comment-46135007-20200705134253/@comment-46244424-20200705195735

Hello, first of all I'd like to say that I'm definitely not a Trump supporter, I maybe even lean a little left :)

I do believe however there a few factors which will give Trump the win this time, maybe even in the popular vote:

1) In the last 100 years there have only been three presidents to be elected and not re-elected: Hoover, Carter, and Bush Sr. In all three cases, there was a great economic recession that began during their presidency. While we may be heading into an economic recession right now, historically economic recessions from pandemics or other natural disasters have proven to be light, with the country leaders only getting popularity instead of losing it. All three also had to go against very strong challengers FDR, Reagan, and Clinton.

2) There will definitely be a "shy tory factor"  in the election, just like we noticed four years earlier, with many people who secretly support Trump refusing to admit so as not to be called racist or homophobic. In the last election, this helped Trump improve his popular vote standings by 4.2% from what the final polls suggested. (see also 1992 UK general election)

3) Biden is not nearly as good of a public speaker as Gore or Clinton. As much as I like Biden, I'm afraid that he will gaff and hurt his poll numbers. His old age might also be a worry to many Americans and Trump could exploit it just like Bill Clinton exploited Bob Dole's old age.

Therefore, I just don't see Trump losing this election, it wouldn't line up historically. I do believe that if Trump won't win the popular vote, he'll definitely improve on his performance from 2016.