2024 United States Presidential Election (Leftiverse)

See also: 2024 United States Congressional Elections

The 2024 United States Presidential Election was held on Tuesday November 5, 2024. The Democratic ticket of Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Representative Rashida Tlaib defeated the Republican ticket of former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley and South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem. It is considered the greatest electoral upset since 2016, as Republicans were expected to win the presidency, as well as strengthen their House majority, by large margins. Kyrsten Sinema is largely considered to be a spoiler candidate, taking Republican votes away in the states of Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota. However, she is also considered to have lost Ocasio-Cortez the states of North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin, which had been trending reliably blue for the past several years.

The election was the first presidential election where the presidential and vice presidential candidates of the major parties were all women, coining 2024 "The Year of Women". It also had the largest turnout for an independent candidate since Ross Perot in 1992. Ocasio-Cortez was elected as the first female and first Latina president. Tlaib became the second female and first Muslim vice president.

The popular vote was split three ways, with the winner, Ocasio-Cortez, receiving the plurality, not the majority, of votes. This prompted the creation and passage of the 28th amendment to the Constitution in 2029; which creates a national ranked voting system for Presidential, House, and Senate elections.

Background
The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and its handling were still being felt into 2022 and 2024. President Biden held low unpopularity due to his handling of the pandemic, with many voters disapproving of vaccine mandates. Supply chain bottlenecks and inflation also lead to growing unpopularity towards the Biden presidency. Biden received an all-time low of 30% approval in 2022, with a high of only 42% in early 2024, lowering to 38% before the election in October.

Rising international tensions had increased over the course of the Biden presidency. With the widely criticized and unpopular pullout of Afghanistan, Iran, China, North Korea, and Russia seemed emboldened against the United States. Tensions continued to sour with China, with continual military drills around Taiwan and the South China Sea. Chinese and other Asian factories also remained closed or operating at low capacity due to COVID-19, which only made supply-chain bottlenecks worse, especially around the 2021 Christmas season. Relations with North Korea soured during the Biden administration, with an increase of missile tests and military drills near South Korea and Japan. The U.S. and China entered into a new cold war arms race, with China developing and testing hypersonic technology and military budgets inflating.

The economy and inflation also played a role in the 2024 election. Continued inflation of no less than 5% a year, stagnant GDP growth of around 0.8%-1.3% per year, and continued unemployment hovering around 4% lead to strong disapproval of Biden. Immigration also increased along the Mexican Border, with millions of new illegal immigrants trying to get across the border every year.

Senate Democrats failed to pass much of President Biden's agenda due to blockage by more moderate Democratic Senators Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, and Joe Manchin of West Virginia. Senator Sinema received much praise from moderates and conservative Republicans for blocking progressive bills and Biden's agenda. Republicans ending up retaking the House and Senate in the 2022 midterms, with a 51-49 majority in the Senate and 232-203 majority in the House. Republican Glenn Youngkin also bested Democrat Terry McAuliffe in heavily Democratic Virginia in the 2021 Virginia Gubernatorial election, becoming the first Republican Governor of Virginia since Bob McDonnell in 2014.

With Biden at a low approval rating and Republicans performing well in state and national elections, Republicans were expected to win in 2024 with no less than 300 electoral votes and winning the popular vote around 51%. They were also expected to expand their House majority to over 240 or 250 seats,

Democrat nomination
Incumbent Joe Biden decided not to seek reelection, opening the possibility of a highly competitive primary season. Biden endorsed his Vice President Kamala Harris, who was the front runner and expected nominee. However, low popularity and the threat from several other candidates left Harris without the nomination. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, and Tulsi Gabbard fought in neck-and-neck primaries, with Ocasio-Cortez securing the nomination, Representative Rashida Tlaib as her running mate.

Republican Nomination
Former President Donald Trump decided in 2023 not to seek reelection, wanting to instead "pass the torch of our movement to the next great America first conservative". Several candidates, including Ted Cruz, Nikki Haley, Matt Gaetz, Francis Suarez, Geoff Duncan, and Larry Hogan fought in the primaries. However, Haley secured the nomination, with South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem as her running mate.

Independent Candidacy
Kyrsten Sinema's popularity among moderates and independents propelled her into an independent presidential run in 2023. Tulsi Gabbard was chosen as her running mate after she dropped out of the Democratic primaries. Although not expected to win, Sinema was thought to have to possibility of being a spoiler candidate for Democrats or Republicans, or splitting the vote enough to cause the election to go to Congress, where Haley and Noem were expected to win, due to Republican majorities.

Third-Party Nomination
Dave Smith was chosen to run for the Libertarian Party, with Marshall Burt as his running mate. The Libertarian Party was not expected to win the Presidency, or any Congressional seats, but was expected to be a spoiler candidate to the Republican Party, as they were in Georgia in 2020.

Howie Hawkins once again represented the Green Party as its nominee in 2024, with Dario Hunter as his running mate. Like the Libertarian Party, the Greens were not expected to win any national elections, but were expected to act as a spoiler to Ocasio-Cortez in key states such as Michigan and Wisconsin,

Debates
Three presidential and one vice presidential debates were held. Kysten Sinema participated in all three presidential debates, with Tulsi Gabbard participating in the vice presidential debate.

The first presidential debate was held September 27, at the University of Central Florida. It was moderated by Chris Wallace of FOX News. Topics included the economy and unemployment, relations with China and Taiwan, trade agreements, and personal health decisions in vaccinations, abortions, and insurance.

The vice presidential debate was held October 6, at the University of Oregon. It was moderated by Martha Raddatz of ABC. Topics included unemployment, inflation, and the economy, immigration, the environment, Senate procedure, and healthcare.

The second Presidential debate was held October 17, in the form of a town hall at the Kennedy Center in Washington, D.C. It was moderated by Anderson Cooper and Brian Williams of CNN and MSNBC respectively. Topics were chosen from the audience and ranged from corruption, race relations, job creation, border policy, climate change, women in leadership, and gun ownership.

The third presidential debate was held October 23, at Wellesley College. It was moderated by Kristen Welker of NBC. Topics included the environment, foreign relations with Europe, Russia, North Korea, Iran, and China, social security and medicare/medicaid, and education.

Results
Ocasio-Cortez bested Haley and Sinema with 48.7% of the vote, with 270 electoral votes. Haley received 41% of the vote, with 255 electoral votes. Sinema received 9.3% of the vote, with 13 electoral votes. Two faithless electors casted their votes for Sinema rather than Ocasio-Cortez in the states of Georgia and Pennsylvania. The results were highly controversial, with the vote split three-ways raising concerns over such a scenario again, prompting the 28th amendment. The results were also regarded as the biggest electoral upset since 2016 and the closest election since 2000.

The results showed vulnerability within the Republican Party. Over half the electoral votes carried by Haley were won with less than a 5% lead over Ocasio-Cortez, including previously safe Republican states such as Texas (2.84%) and North Carolina (1.38%). The results also showed continued support for Democrats in the states of Arizona, Georgia, and Michigan, with growing support in Texas, North Carolina, and Florida.

Close States
States where the margin of victory was under 1% (41 electoral votes; 15 won by Ocasio-Cortez, 14 by Haley, 12 by Sinema):


 * Georgia, 0.02% (1,022 votes) - 16 electoral votes
 * Arizona, 0.13% (4,863 votes) - 11 electoral votes
 * New Hampshire, 0.49% (3,728 votes) - 4 electoral votes
 * Wisconsin, 0.73% (22,870 votes) - 10 electoral votes

States where the margin of victory was between 1% and 5% (157 electoral votes; 34 won by Ocasio-Cortez, 122 won by Haley, 1 won by Sinema):


 * Nevada, 1.2% (18,603) - 6 electoral votes
 * Florida, 1.34% (200,346) - 30 electoral votes
 * North Carolina, 1.38% (91,080) - 16 electoral votes
 * Pennsylvania, 1.71% (80,572) - 19 electoral votes
 * Texas, 2.84% (427,881) - 40 electoral votes
 * Utah, 3.32% (76,014) - 6 electoral votes
 * Ohio, 3.8% (228,420) - 17 electoral votes
 * Michigan, 3.92% (148,275) - 15 electoral votes
 * Maine's Second Congressional District, 4.5% (19,374) - 1 electoral vote
 * Iowa, (71,674) 4.88% - 6 electoral votes
 * Nebraska's Second Congressional District, 4.96% (10,273) - 1 electoral votes

Spoiler Effect
Kyrsten Sinema acted as a spoiler candidate to the Republicans, costing Haley Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and almost Utah, North Carolina, and Texas. Libertarians also acted as a spoiler in Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. With only 30% of votes for Sinema and Smith going towards Haley, it is expected Republicans would have won the election.