Talk:Scenario: Uplink's Predictions

Im wondering if space might develop faster then in my predictions. Designs for single-stage space planes exist today but are prohibitivly expensive, and the weak materials would make it unsafe for constant civilian use. Simply by substituting Aluminum with diamondoid materials expected to be mass produced even BEFORE nanofactories, you could make a space plane viable.

Before nanofactories are publicly available, NanoCad software will be widely available (you can download weak versions today), and it stands to reason someone, some company or NASA (or esa csa etc) will design a space plane that is designed to be assembled in blocks for nanofactories. Using advanced materials the space plane could be no larger then a civilan aircraft today.

The cost of the materials and energy would be negligable, so anyone that could afford a car could afford a space plane easily, and could build one within a week to a month (or less) after getting a Nanofactory (which would also be cheap). Fuel would also be cheap (oxygen,hydrogen,carbon etc).

So six months after nanofactories are mass produced there could be millions of space planes in orbit. To create an orbital station one would only have to carry a space-certified nanofactory and some other initial gear to orbit in the space plane's cargo, deploy it into orbit (you would have to register it first of course) then make number of trips to supply it with raw materials (these trips would probably be unmanned and autonomous). Over time the station would build itself using the nanofactory and small macro-scale robots to place large peices. So 1 year after nanofactories are mass-produced there could be thousands of large orbital stations and many times more smaller ones, and millions of space planes servicing them and shuttling people around.

And just as easily as you can make stations, making larger ships (in orbit) capable of having a space plane dock and then use its large engines to propel you to mars or the moon could be just as quick. The space plane could be rebuilt on route to be able to fly at Mars. Space Elevators for Earth and Mars could be built rather easily too along with solar power satillites.

However because a mission to mars would require much more planning and perhaps an infrasture at Mars, you couldnt just go there. But unmanned craft would supply that infrastruce and various biological support systems could be rapidly developed.

So by 2025(assuming a 2020 date for nanofactory) as many as 100million space planes could be comming to and from orbit along with possibly millions of space stations and other structures. Spaceships capable of reaching the moon and mars could number in the 100,000s and with that kind of infrastucture tens of millions of people could be living in space. The moon could have several colonies and a mission to Mars and possible an outpost could have been completed.

So what do you think?

Uplink


 * Yes, space will be faster. Nanofactories are probably placed too early in the timeline. Almost everything else in 2020 is easier (so will come earlier). And nanofactories (meaning advanced nanotech) should really accelerate development. Interestingly, expert systems existed long ago...


 * The second half is strange too. One can travel to Alpha Centauri quite easily (at relativistic speeds) using conventional tech enhanced with nanotech. So you should expect that as soon as people get some "nanopower" and certainly immediately after Strong AI. It would also take 5 years, not 20 to get there. And the construction of a Dyson Sphere is unlikely to start so early, even with a Singularity. Paranoid 15:28, 27 July 2006 (UTC)

thoughts
When I made my timeline, I made my predictions for most items based on mass adoption rather then invention date. For example we have hypersonic prototypes today but it is far from military deployment or civilian use. I previously had each prediction color-coded to signal this. When I say Expert Systems - I mean in a more mature form capable of collaborating with people usefully in engineering, science, law, economics etc.

Now I have to disagree with you on the date for nanofactories. All my research to date points me to a 2020 date for commercially available nanofactories. I've even considered lowering it to 2018. Its potentially only months from a fabricator to a nanofactory, and in 15 years I cant see a fabricator not being made.

I agree my second half is much more conservative then the first. I thought it was better to be that way as predicting the future gets exponentially harder as you go futher into the future. When I say Dyson's Sphere begins, I dont mean a full thick shell. I mean building large arrays of solar collectors (dyson segments) close to the sun to more efficienly collect solar power and to reduce the number of collectors cluttering earths orbit. These arrays would improve and become more numerous over time as per our energy needs. Gradually becoming what could be considered a Dyson's Sphere.

I will look over it again and do some research and see what needs changing.

Its a work in progress (not really work, I enjoy doing it :D ) --Uplink 19:22, 27 July 2006 (UTC)