Incoming Disorder (Scenario)



The world which we know is an anomaly. Free trade, free market, and the ideals of today were never a norm in history. This scenario explores the world’s incoming disorder and the wars, conflicts and interests that will soon tear a globalised world apart.

American Order
Make no mistake, the world of today is built on a foundation laid almost eighty years ago by the United States in a little-known meeting known as the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944.

Officially, the conference founded the IMF and other economic institutions that make the world of today possible. Informally, American officials bribed every allied power present with the promise of unrestricted, perpetual economic trade with the rest of the world; a guarantee of a stable economic system for a majority of participants, and access to the only capital market left untouched by a devastating world war. A bribe that could and still can be maintained with a naval force larger than the rest of the world combined; an affluent populace educated and continuing to break free of the older ideas inherited from olden powers.

Today, we live on an American bribe offered by American superpowerhood that remains unparalleled. The average American Democrat will tell you how much trade benefits the world and the average American will praise the practice. No one can disagree. Japanese goods flow into Europe and Italian goods flow into South America. Logistics giants tower above. The pace of technological progress skyrocketed under a combined baby boom and the most free economic situation in history.

Unfortunately, it was a bribe that is out of time. The Americans are shrinking back from the world wholesale after disasters in Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan. The average American is souring on protecting erstwhile allies and some even praise opposing Authoritarians. American politics is setting up for a Second Civil Rights Movement.

The Order’s time is up. The Disorder’s time is incoming.

Incoming Disorder
The title of this scenario is the same. It’s not what I want to happen - it’s what is beginning to occur. The world is in the slow-motion process of burning off American-built links and exploding localised bridges. No matter what I want to happen, this scenario is different. This is objectively what will occur in the near future.

I’ve split the scenario into different parts, like A Mighty Endeavour, the project which led me to this premise in the first place. If that’s all, let’s get started.

The Arduous Breakdown of East Asia
Dealing with East Asia’s torturous politics is exhausting enough as it is. The Disorder is about to make it go full explosive.
 * The Ongoing Collapse of China
 * Japan’s Nationalistic Re-Ascent
 * Vietnam’s Hostilities
 * Fragility in the Philippines
 * Indonesia’s Economic Revolution
 * Surprisingly Stable Indochina

Europe’s Dissolution
The European Union is in the slow process of dissolving from a continent-wide organisation to a rump trade pact led in the West. A certain Russian factor will speed it up.
 * Russian Decline and Violence
 * NATO’s End
 * Goodbye Germany, hello France
 * An Oddly United Kingdom
 * Poland and Sweden on a Team?

A Middle Eastern War
The Saudis and the Iranians aren’t exactly on the best of terms, and with the variables that were keeping one of the powers under a loose leash gone the fights are getting bloody.
 * Oil Breakdown

The American Americas
No matter what, America seems to always come out on top - eventually. And soon it will come out on top of the New World.

African Decentralisation & Resource Nodes
Irrelevance is a quintissential part of African jokes - it’s about to get its day in the limelight, good and hard. Unfortunately, they won’t quite be economic booms or renaissances.