United States Presidential Election, 2024 (Dane's Timeline)

The 2024 United States Presidential Election was the 60th quadrennial Presidential Election, held on November 5th, 2024. The Republican Ticket of former Vice President Mike Pence and Representative Mario Diaz-Balart of Florida defeated the Democratic Ticket of Incumbent President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris. Biden became the 12th President in American History to lose re-election and the first to do so since Donald Trump in 2020. This was also the first time since 1892 that two Presidents in a row lost re-election, with Grover Cleveland defeating Incumbent President Benjamin Harrison that year. Pence won 50.1% of the popular vote, becoming the second Republican of the 21st century to win the popular vote and the first to do so since George W Bush in 2004. Pence secured 80.6 million votes, becoming the first Republican to ever pass the 80 million vote threshold and earning the second highest vote total in American History. This election saw a record 67.7% turnout, narrowly surpassing the turnout in the 2020 Presidential election.

Biden secured the Democratic nomination without much of a serious challenge. Former Representative Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii attempted a primary challenge, citing Biden's age and health, but Gabbard remained well under 10% in every primary and withdrew before the convention. Mike Pence won the nomination in a surprisingly uncompetitive Republican Primary, despite the presence of nearly 15 different candidates, including former ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, former Governor of Maryland Larry Hogan, and Senator Ted Cruz from Texas. Pence's Vice Presidential nominee, Mario Diaz-Balart, was the first Hispanic vice presidential nominee on a major party ticket. Jacob Hornberger secured the Libertarian nomination with Dan Behrman as his running mate. Angela Nicole Walker secured the Green Party nomination, with Dario Hunter as her running mate.

Biden's popularity was initially high in 2021 due to anti-Trump sentiment and some success regarding the vaccine to end the Coronavirus Pandemic, but, his popularity eventually plummeted in light of rising racial tensions and foreign policy blunders in Asia. Health and Foreign Policy were the predominant election themes, with strong concentration on the future of the Affordable Care Act, Abortion Policy, Race relations, and Global Foreign Policy.

Pence won by a rather wide margin, winning by 110 electoral votes and securing 50.1% of the electoral vote. He was the first Republican to secure at least 50% of the popular vote since George W Bush in 2004. Pence swept traditional Republican strongholds in the South, Great Plains, and Mountain West, in addition to securing the critical swing states of Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Pence also had a historic night for Republicans across the midwest and northeast, becoming the first Republican to carry Minnesota since Richard Nixon in 1972, and the first Republican to carry Maine since George HW Bush in 1988. As the election was rather non-competitive, the election was subject to minimal controversy, however, recounts did occur in several close states, namely Minnesota, Maine, New Hampshire, and Nevada- however, no serious changes to the outcome occurred as a result.

Candidates

 * Joe Biden, Incumbent President (Nominee)
 * Tulsi Gabbard, Former Representative from Hawaii

Having won the 2020 Presidential Election, Joe Biden was considered the de-facto leader of the Democratic Party. Given Biden's age, some questions emerged as to if he would run for re-election, given he would be 82 at the beginning of his next term if re-elected. Vice President Kamala Harris was believed to be the likely nominee in the event that Biden did not run for re-election. However, Joe Biden elected to run for re-election and the priamry remained uncontested. However, this changed when former Representative from Hawaii Tulsi Gabbard entered the primary, citing Biden's age as a primary reason for entering. However, Gabbard did not pose a serious challenge, and remained well under 10% in every primary she competed in before withdrawing well before the convention. Kamala Harris was unanimously re-nominated as Vice President at the convention as well.

The Democratic National Convention was held from August 13th-15th, 2024 at the Miami Beach Convention Center in Miami, Florida, where Incumbent President Joe Biden and Incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris were easily renominated. Each stated they were "honored" to secure the nomination and said that they had "many great things" planned for a second term, citing police reform and expansion of the Affordable Care Act.

Candidates

 * Mike Pence, 48th Vice President of the United States (Nominee)
 * Donald Trump Jr, Businessman from New York
 * Ted Cruz, United States Senator from Texas
 * Nikki Haley, Former US Ambassador to the United Nations
 * Larry Hogan, Former Governor of Maryland
 * Tim Scott, United States Senator from South Carolina
 * Mike Pompeo, Former Secretary of State from Kansas
 * Charlie Baker, Governor of Massachusetts
 * Marco Rubio, United States Senator from Florida
 * Candace Owens, Activist from Connecticut

After losing the 2020 Presidential Election to Joe Biden, and Donald Trump declined to run in 2024 in late 2021, the Republican Presidential Primary Field was perceived to be wide open. As a result, contenders quickly scrambled to enter the Presidential field- notably Larry Hogan, who was the first to announce his campaign. Eventually, the field grew to include Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Mike Pence, Donald Trump Jr, and Tim Scott among others.

The Republicans engaged in several rounds of debates during the 2024 primary process. Nine candidates qualified for the first debate, which took place in Houston, Texas, on August 6th, 2023- Mike Pence, Donald Trump Jr, Ted Cruz, Nikki Haley, Larry Hogan, Tim Scott, Mike Pompeo, Charlie Baker, and Marco Rubio. At these debates, Ted Cruz solidified his position amongst the frontrunners by attacking Marco Rubio, stating that his immigration plan was "out of touch" and "wholly unpatriotic". Rubio failed to qualify for the second debate in October and withdrew from the race soon after

Six candidates remained in the race in some capacity by the time of the Iowa Caucuses- Pence, Trump Jr, and Cruz were all close in the primary polls, each within shouting distance of passing the others. Further behind them was Tim Scott, Larry Hogan, and Nikki Haley, who polled in the single digits but had gained at least some traction within the party.

Despite Ted Cruz being favored to win the Iowa caucuses, Mike Pence ended up finishing narrowly in first place, with Cruz in second and Donald Trump Jr in third place. Nikki Haley won a small portion of the vote as well, finishing in fourth. Larry Hogan and Tim Scott compiled a combined 3% of the vote and withdrew after the Iowa caucuses, seeing no immediate path to the nomination. New Hampshire was won by Trump Jr, with Pence in second and Cruz in third- causing Nikki Haley to withdraw from the race and the field to narrow to a three man race. Cruz withdrew after Super Tuesday in Early March, where Pence won all but four states- Minnesota, Vermont, Massachusetts, and Colorado- which each went to Trump Jr. In the coming weeks, Pence would begin to sweep the rest of the map, with Trump Jr withdrawing from the race after a narrow primary defeat in late April in his home state of New York.

At the Republican National Covention, held from August 20-22 in Atlanta, Georgia, Mike Pence accepted the Republican Nomination for President. In his acceptance speech, he warned against the "socialist takeover" perpetuated by Biden and the Democratic Party while laying out a vision for the country considered by many to be similar to that of Donald Trump's 2016 Presidential Campaign. At the convention, Pence and the party selected Mario Diaz-Balart, a Representative from Florida, to be Pence's running mate. While considered to be an unconventional choice by many, Party insiders believed his nomination would have numerous benefits. He also became the first Hispanic to ever appear on the ticket of a major Presidential Party.

Libertarian Party Nomination
Jacob Hornberger, an author from Virginia, secured the Libertarian Party nomination at the convention on June 3rd, 2024. He selected Dan Behrman, a former candidate for Governor of Texas in 2022, as his running mate.

Green Party Nomination
Angela Nicole Walker, an activist from Wisconsin and Vice Presidential Nominee of Howie Hawkins's Green Party Ticket in 2020, Secured the nomination at the convention. She selected Dario Hunter, a member of the Youngstown Ohio School Board, as her running mate.

Fundraising
Fundraising occurred at record breaking levels in the 2024 Presidential Election, with candidates routinely raising 100 or even 200 million in each individual quarter. Donations largely came through grassroots fundraising, mega donors, Super PACs, and outside spending. Outside spending was exceptionally common in the 2024 Presidential Election, with much of this geared towards negative advertising, attacking either Mike Pence or Joe Biden. In negative advertisements, Biden was frequently attacked as an "out of touch" socialist whereas Pence was attacked as "intolerant and disrespectful"

Presidential Debates
A total of three Presidential Debates occurred during the 2024 Presidential Election, including one featuring the two major party vice presidential candidates, Mario Diaz-Balart and Kamala Harris.

The first debate was hosted by the University of Georgia in Athens, Georgia on September 26th, 2024. While the debate itself was widely considered a draw between Pence and Biden, several notable moments helped define this particular debate in Pence's favor. Biden stumbled and nearly fell walking up to the podium, displaying weakness unseen by any Presidential Candidate before, and was quick to shy away from intervention in the Central Asian Arab Spring in a confrontation on foreign policy with former Vice President Pence, who proceeded to call Biden a "Chinese Puppet" and say that "Xi would be happy to see him win". Biden also stumbled on his words several times and seemed incoherent at points. This was all exploited in Pence's campaign advertising later on.

The second debate, occuring between Vice Presidential candidates Mario Diaz-Balart and Kamala Harris, occured on October 8th, 2024 at Marquette University in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Diaz-Balart is widely believed to have won this debate, hammering the non-intervention stance in Central Asia of Biden's administration and putting emphasis on the "socialist" record of his opponent.

The third and final debate occurred one week before the election, on October 26th, 2024 at the University of North Carolina. This debate had a copius amount of back and forth between Pence and Biden, and is widely accepted to have been a draw, with this debate holding no substantial impact on the race.

Polling
Polling in the final week of the election indicated an narrow Biden lead in the national popular vote, though some polling data did have Pence up in this category.

Polling Data
The following chart displays some notable polls throughout the final week of the 2024 Presidential Election.

Foreign Policy
Following the emergence of the Central Asian revolutions in late 2023, Foreign Policy became an issue of priority in the 2024 Presidential Election. Often referred to as the second Arab Spring, a series of revolutions took place in Central Asian Countries, including Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan, resulting in the countries devolving into a heavy state of unrest and Civil War. One faction fighting in many of these civil wars was Al-Qaeda, who retook control of Afghanistan following President Biden's withdrawal of troops from the region in 2021 and fought northward into Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. President Biden took the stance that it is not wise for the United States to be involved in affairs in this region. Pence took the opposing stance, that intervention in this region would be a perfect opportunity to strangle China's supply lines of oil from the middle east. Biden warned that this could possibly lead to Iran becoming a nuclear power, much to the chagrin of Pence, who called Biden the "President of Al-Qaeda" during a heated foreign policy exchange in the first debate.

Climate Change
Following two record and historically active Hurricane seasons, in the Pacific in 2022 and the Atlantic in 2023, which saw each basin have the most recorded tropical storms on record, the first Hurricane landfall in Southern California since 1858, and a Hurricane with sustained winds of 190 mph make landfall in Florida, Climate change became a crucial issue in the 2024 election. President Biden cited these seasons as being prime examples of climate change's occurence, and cited his actions reversing Trump's environmental policies and re-entry into the Paris Climate Accords as examples of adequate action to address climate change. Pence, on the other hand, said that Biden was in the pocket of "big science" and stated that these events don't represent climate change- taking a stance that framed him as a "denier" of climate change.

LGBTQ Rights
With Pence's Presidential Nomination for the Republican Party, LGBTQ rights emerged as a key issue in the 2024 Presidential Election. The Biden campaign alleged from Pence's past statements that he supports "conversion therapy", a pseudoscientific practice which seeks to "convert" gay people- and the Biden campaign expressed strong support for LGBTQ rights, promising an anti-discrimination act for the LGBTQ community if re-elected. Pence, when confronted about his stance on LGBTQ rights, denied supporting conversion therapy, but did iterate that as a christian, gay marriage does not fit into his moral values and he doesn't support gay marriage as an institution.

Statistics
A total of 159 million people voted in this election, the most total votes cast in American History. Pence won the popular vote, earning 50.1% of the popular vote and 80.6 million votes, the second most votes of any Presidential Candidate, behind Biden's victory in 2020 at 81 million votes. It was the tenth consecutive election in which the winner of the election did not win the popular votes by double digits, the longest such streak in American History dating back to 1988.

Biden was the first incumbent President since Donald Trump in 2020 to lose re-election as an incumbent, and the 12th President to do so in American History. The Presidential incumbent was also defeated in back to back elections for the first time since 1888. Pence won the largest share of the vote for any Republican since 2004 and was the first such Republican since then to win the popular vote. Pence became the third former Vice President to go on to become President and the second Republican to do so, after Richard Nixon in 1968 and Joe Biden in 2020.

Pence won a total of 34 states, along with Maine's second congressional district, totaling a total of 324 electoral votes. Biden won a total of 16 states, along with the District of Columbia and Maine's 1st Congressional District, and a total of 214 electoral votes. This was the largest electoral landslide for any party since the 2012 Presidential Election, when Obama won 332 electoral votes to Romney's 206. The 34 states Pence carried was the most states carried by any Presidential candidate since George HW Bush in 1988. Pence also became the first Republican to carry Maine since 1988 and the first Republican to carry Minnesota since 1972.

Election Calls
Major media networks project a state for a candidate when there is high confidence that a candidate will win the outstanding vote and would be unlikely to prevent the current leader from winning the state.

Pence was projected to win after being projected to carry Wisconsin by most major media outlets early on November 6th, including Fox News, CBS, and ABC, which brought Pence to a total of 276 electoral votes projected into his column. That Morning, Mike Pence gave a victory speech from Indianapolis, Indiana, whereas President Biden gave a concession speech from Wilmington, Delaware around the same time.

Electoral Results
The numbers in the table are the results certified by each state, detailed in the table of the results by state further below.

Close States
States/districts where the margin of victory was under 1% (20 electoral votes, 14 won by Pence, 6 won by Biden)


 * Nevada 0.1%
 * Minnesota 0.2%
 * Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District 0.2%
 * New Hampshire 0.8%

States where the margin of victory was between 1% and 5% (90 electoral votes, all won by Pence)


 * Maine At-Large 1.4%
 * Pennsylvania 2.3%
 * Arizona 2.5%
 * Georgia 3.6% (tipping point state)
 * Michigan 3.9%
 * North Carolina 4.9%
 * Wisconsin 4.9%

States where the margin of victory was between 5% and 10% (69 electoral votes, 41 won by Pence, 28 won by Biden)


 * New Mexico 6.4%
 * Colorado 8.3%
 * Virginia 9.6%
 * Texas 9.7%