Talk:US Senate Elections, 2016 (Joe's World)/@comment-50.172.108.98-20141213212528/@comment-25816873-20141214020156

I don't live in IL but here's what I know. Obama beat McCain by 3.4MM-2.0MM in 2008 and Romney by 2.9MM-2.1MM. Kirk won in 2010 by 1.77MM-1.71MM. In other words, Kirk got fewer votes in winning (a LOT fewer) than either McCain or Romney got in losing, and while Kirk barely won, McCain and Romney were crushed. MIDTERM ELECTIONS ARE DIFFERENT. The Democratic base doesn't turn out for them.

2016 IS NOT a mid-term election. Turnout won't be 3.4MM as it was in the 2010 Senatorial selection, it will be AT LEAST 5.0MM. And based upon the last three elections in IL, the maximum Republican vote is 2.1MM, which means that over half a million two-time Obama voters would have to swing over and vote for Kirk. Even then it would be close.

I'm sure you know a few Obama voters who will switch to Kirk. You don't know half a million. Kirk is a dead man walking.